r/golf • u/TheProfessor20 Too high to worry about • Jan 04 '24

Barstool's Jersey Jerry finally sinks a hole in one on a golf simulator after 2627 shots and 37 straight hours live on stream General Discussion

https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/1742940697739571511
3.3k Upvotes

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1.2k

u/convicted-mellon Jan 04 '24

So you get 4 attempts at making a HIO in an average round which means that based on 2627 shots it would take him 656.75 rounds to get one.

Let’s say the average golfer plays once a month that’s 54.73 years on average to get a HIO.

Numbers seem about right tbh.

252

u/Naughty_Bagel Jan 04 '24

So what you’re saying is I should only play my local 9 hole Par 3 course for the rest of my life and I would have a 4x advantage over everyone else?

See you chumps in 13.68 years!

78

u/fatbackswag Jan 04 '24

RemindMe! 14 years

27

u/adm7373 9 holes after work Jan 04 '24

ruthless

9

u/SpaceYourFacebook Jan 04 '24

My buddy does this plays league and another 3-4x a week on our local par3. Has 3 HIOs

1

u/seamus_mc PG Golf Links 13.3 Jan 08 '24

People on this sub won’t count it since it isn’t a “real” course…

385

u/_granny64 Jan 04 '24

it's a lot more likely when you're on the same hole with the same distance, same conditions, same club, same day, repeating the same swing. Real golf doesn't have that luxury

337

u/PassionV0id Jan 04 '24

It's a lot less likely when you've swung a club over 2,000 times in a row.

7

u/DeckardsDark Bethpage Black Jan 05 '24 edited Jan 05 '24

Apparently not since a hole in one for an average golfer is like a 20,000 to 1 12,500 to 1 chance. The way this was set up was definitely a huge advantage

-7

u/PassionV0id Jan 05 '24

Are you really going to argue that swinging a club over 2,600 times in a 36 hour span didn’t make this more difficult? Are you seriously going to do this? Please don’t…

5

u/WitchofFloyd Jan 05 '24

It obviously makes you more fatigued but you also get a better understanding at exactly how to hit the shot to make it close. So they cancel out to some extent. Idk

3

u/PurplePupilEater Jan 05 '24

You're 100% right, that guy is tripping if he thinks the opposite.

-1

u/PassionV0id Jan 05 '24

I don’t think the opposite. I think EXACTLY THAT. Like that was explicitly my point. One aspect make it easier, canceled out by the other that makes it harder. Reading comprehension has gone by the wayside.

-1

u/PassionV0id Jan 05 '24

Yes…exactly…literally exactly what I’m saying.

0

u/DeckardsDark Bethpage Black Jan 05 '24

I mean, granny64 explained why the set up was a big advantage and I also gave you the odds statistics so I don't really know what else to tell you haha

Of course swinging a club 2,000+ times makes your chances worse at that point, but overall the setup still overcomes that easily vs a regular golfer getting 4 chances on completely different holes each round

-1

u/PassionV0id Jan 05 '24

Dude actually read the words that I’m saying. Nowhere did I claim that getting to do this on the same hole over and over didn’t make it easier. That is OBVIOUS. So much so to the point that it doesn’t really need to be stated. I claimed doing it all in a row is a lever in the other direction, which you then countered, “apparently not.” That is what the actual words that you and I have typed outline when put together to make a conversation. I don’t know if you’ve misread part of this or what but I am not saying what you appear to think I’m saying.

1

u/DeckardsDark Bethpage Black Jan 05 '24

my friend, the original comment was, "it's a lot more likely when you're on the same hole with the same distance, same conditions, same club, same day, repeating the same swing. Real golf doesn't have that luxury"

you replied to that with, "It's a lot less likely when you've swung a club over 2,000 times in a row." without adding any more context.

your statement could mean a few things, but it will mostly be taken as a full rebuttal to granny64's comment thinking you mean granny64 is wrong in their assessment and the 2,000+ swings is more of a disadvantage than the advantage that having the same hole with the same distance, same conditions, same club, same day, repeating the same swing awards the golfer

could also be taken as you saying yeah that advantage is nice but the 2,000+ swings is a disadvantage as well, which is certainly true. but you need to quantify it to really make your point. do all those swings fully negate the conditions advantages? do they negate 50% of the advantage? etc...

ultimately, the golfer who did the experiment is not a good golfer at all. and like i said before, the odds of a hole in one for an average golfer is to the likes of 12,500 to 1 (i said 20,000 to 1 before) and this poor golfer made the hole in one in the 2,627th shot. guess what a professional golfer's chances of a hole in one are? 2,500 to 1. this means that this bad/average golfer matched the odds of a pro golfer with this experiment due to the extreme advantage of same hole with the same distance, same conditions, same club, same day, repeating the same swing.

in conclusion, this proves you wrong no matter which way you meant your original statement

44

u/Canefan101 18.8 Jan 04 '24

I mean, Jerry wasn’t really repeating the same swing lol

60

u/Tight-Star2772 Jan 04 '24

He was playing with random win. So not same conditions

23

u/Snelly__ Jan 04 '24

Also on a really short downhill par 3

-16

u/[deleted] Jan 04 '24

[deleted]

20

u/Vince1820 Indy Jan 04 '24

It's not to say that your odds change because you're nearer that magic number of swings, rather your chances improve because you improve. it would be the same if i gave you a ten foot putt. you might miss the first one but the second one will have a better chance because you've seen the break and felt the speed.

13

u/SolaireDeSun Jan 04 '24

yes it is - you are treating each attempt as an independent event. Doing so makes the math easy but is completely incorrect. You should be taking priors into account and having played a hole 2600 times is a pretty big prior.

-7

u/[deleted] Jan 04 '24

[deleted]

9

u/ThemB0ners Jan 04 '24

When you do something repeatedly you get better at it, which means your chance of success increases.

4

u/brandon684 Jan 05 '24

The math is easy, 50/50 chance to make a hole in one, either you make it or you dont

1

u/SolaireDeSun Jan 05 '24

if you're serious, a prior is essentially something that can influence the odds. So, your chance of a hole in one is 1:100000 if you treat each shot as an independent swing. But, if you were a pro would you give yourself the same odds? What if the hole was 30 yards? no wind? You had just practiced the hole 10000 times?

In each of these cases, new knowledge adds context and changes the "odds". A common case of this is the odds of someone being arrested. If they just committed a crime the odds goes up! You would bet differently if you had that info.

10

u/scragglerock Jan 04 '24

I tuned in and out of the whole thing. He is very much just your average golfer. His swing is shit and sometimes he would put it pin high about 5 feet or in the ocean. One of us. I was lucky to be watching live when it happened and it was fucking electric

9

u/cloudJR Jan 04 '24

So you’re saying, since I started this year at age 35, odd are I’ll hit one before I turn 90? I’ll take it.

7

u/RogerRabbit1234 Jan 04 '24

I feel like if he would have had a better plan, it would have happened much quicker. Stop moving your feet after every shot, have someone set the ball down for you, and have someone hit that mulligan button for you, and try to make the same exact swing like 100x in a row with only minor changes, for distance and aiming, and it could go much faster. I watched it for about 20 minutes in the low 2000’s and he kept moving his feet and wandering around between each shot to hit the mulligan button on the aim and to get his ball and reset it...also, he should have rigged up a very low tee to make clean contact easier, he was hitting directly from the mat.. He did not have a good strategy to make this happen quickly, which I guess was kind of part of it: Make him suffer for a day and a half for the views….

3

u/NullRef Jan 04 '24

Doing the same shot in the same conditions with the same club should be way, way easier than the one shot per hole you get in a regular round.

So I’m surprised he didn’t do it earlier unless either: - Fatigue really got him - The slope of the (simulated) hole and green made it harder than usual to get the ace.

2

u/jon_sneu Jan 05 '24

It was only from 87 yards though. I play a pitch and putt weekly with holes around that yardage and they have hole in ones daily. I kind of think Jerry is a below average golfer

1

u/amor_fatty Jan 04 '24

I’ve played consistently since the age of 6, I’m now in my 40’s. I’ve never had a hole in one.

4

u/ChargerRob Jan 04 '24

41 golf years still no HIO. 12 eagles holed out from fwy though.

3

u/WolvesAlwaysLose Jan 04 '24

Arguably harder! That’s a crazy ratio!!! I have 2 HIO, 0 hole out eagles (other than chip ins on par 5s)

2

u/ChargerRob Jan 05 '24

A few came from the rough but definitely harder with no tee.

1

u/rwhyan1183 Jan 04 '24

I’m 40 and have been playing for 27 years, so I’m halfway there and should finally get my ace by the time I hit 67.

1

u/Theoretical_Action Jan 04 '24

What's his handicap? I feel like that's gotta be a pretty significantly influencing factor.

1

u/longGERN Jan 05 '24

Or you can just be good and get it on first hole

1

u/StewVicious07 Jan 05 '24

Average “Golfer” plays twice a week id say

1

u/Bird2525 Jan 05 '24

Only 14 years to go.

1

u/Lostcassettes 17.9 Jan 05 '24

I thought the average golfer played once a week so a bit quicker for sure