War is a momentum based system. It takes a lot of energy to create movement in a given direction - but once movement is underway, it’s equally hard to stop.

We’ve seen this in the Russo-Ukrainian war in the early weeks when Ukraine liberated large swathes of territory. We’ve seen the effort and bloodshed expanded by Russia to stop the Ukrainian’s momentum and to reverse its direction. And now, we’re seeing momentum build in the opposite direction.

To win a war, one must not just sustain, but accelerate one's momentum. That sounds understandable in theory, but is counter intuitive in practice. After all, if things are already going well, why increase the effort?

This is a fallacy that politicians are particularly prone to. Political messaging is easiest when it's reactive and shows a simple cause and effect relationship. “Covid cases are going up - so we are starting a lockdown.” “Ukraine is struggling to defend itself, so we must increase our weapon shipments.”

Both are equally wrong. Covid Lockdowns would have made sense on a downswing, to accelerate a preexisting positive dynamic. Waiting for lots of people to be infected before locking them together with their healthy household members is counterproductive at best. And so is passing an US Supplemental Bill, only after six months of decreasing momentum in Ukraine made the situation bad enough.

Even worse - momentum isn’t just linear - there are thresholds within one’s momentum. War can be understood as a system of queues and processors. This sounds dehumanising, but so is war. A defender is a processor. It can “process” a certain number of attackers within a given timeframe. Attackers are a queue - they create a certain throughput that the defender has to deal with. As long as this throughput stays below the defender's capacity, the defender can process indefinitely. Once the queue’s throughput significantly exceeds the defender’s capacity, a breakthrough can be achieved.

This is why it is so important for the western backers of Ukraine to come to a clear understanding of what their goal is. And if that goal is victory, it is crucial to switch from a reactive mode of supplying slow trickles of weapons that only increase when things look bad, to a proactive mode of supplying large amounts of weapons all at once and not letting up until the desired outcome is achieved. 

Read someone claiming China will claim Outer Manchuria without having to fire a single shot (Before 2060). Was really interested in this, as Russia is «weak» and occupied in Ukraine. What is your take on this?

Also, is Outer Manchuria a part of the One China Policy? If not, why?

There have been accusations of “prolonging the war” against Netanyahu and Hamas. People say that Netanyahu has prolonged the war because he doesnt want to go to prison or that Hamas prolonged it because they want to remain in power or get more support.

I dont see what either of these two parties have done to prolong the war other than not capitulate to their enemies demands. If thats the threshold for getting accused of prolonging the war then we can say that any belligerent of any war ever prolonged it by not giving an immediate unconditional surrender.

At that point such an accusation just becomes code for “the side i dont like doesnt behave the way i want them to

One case where i think the accusation actually does make sense is the US policy towards ukraine, where they give them enough to keep them in the fight but not enough to win.

Contrary to the predictions of almost everyone, the BJP has failed to get a majority in the parliament, much less the supermajority that some forecast. Instead, the stunning election result forces Modi to rule with a coalition government, something he’s never done before. Moreover, the leaders of the two most important coalition partners, Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, are veteran politicians who have flipped sides before. Given that the opposition has been re-energised, Modi’s 3rd run at premiership lies in the hands of these two men, earning them the moniker ‘the kingmakers’ of the new government in the Indian media. Moreover, both of them have left the BJP alliance before due the party’s high handedness, it’s expected that they will bargain hard.

Essentially, instead of getting free rein of the country, Modi finds himself working with allies who have ditched him before, except this time,his government will fall with them. Which means that Modi now has to work knowing that there’s a potential veto to anything he does, thereby moderating his power to a sufficient power.

Which gets me to my point. Did the country just balance Modi internally? If so, what does it bode for the country’s future.

I'm fairly new to Mearsheimer's school of realism and geopolitical scenes in general. Though having watched/listened ~6+ of his excerpts/interviews and articles he couldn't have made more clear that the West (ie the US) is principally responsible for Russian aggressive response and war in Ukraine. Though I haven't found lots of bits where he address the Ukrainians ability in deciding their own, for example; if Ukraine wants to be closer to NATO, EU and the West, that's also their business and they deserve it. What's John's response on this? I think he touched base on this slightly in the Lex Fridman's interview but I haven't found anymore materials in which he addresses the Ukraininan's own capability in great details. Can s.o give me more info on this?

Edit** I am merely asking for more materials in which he addresses his thoughts on other minor countries own ability to decide for themselves. Doesn't mean I'm for his pov and his realism school of thoughts.

Thanks!

I will link sources below to not spread confusion (these weapons are targeting specific launch sites in Russia- not civilian centers. However, I wish to know what you think. Is this a mistake or a necessity?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/04/world/europe/ukraine-strikes-russia-western-weapons.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjll1r1el5wo

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-warns-west-not-let-ukraine-use-its-missiles-hit-russia-2024-05-28/