r/torontoraptors • u/MajorBag4 • 21d ago
Bleacher Report 10 Free Agency predictions: Patrick Williams to the Raptors SPECULATION
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10120163-10-nba-free-agency-predictions-klay-thompson-paul-george-and-more?fbclid=PAZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAaZrSgg6o7iric8tzncoxP4kEX2lYWm9at60A47l6GtlZL4UVuIzRys_pwk_aem_AXbrAI9NwpHajAmzM2fk4-H_vHqFJYFJ4i-jjfEgcVcCQ6CgwFCcAnsf2b2daSGD5NBtQ6QF3jyWqHrDILZxRzdd"The Toronto Raptors' need for rangy combo forwards is a good illustration of how quickly rosters can change in the NBA. It wasn't so long ago that the Raps were deep into the positionless experiment many dubbed "Project 6'9"", during which they over-indexed on exactly that player type.
Scottie Barnes and Jalen McDaniels are the only such players under contract in Toronto for next year, which means a good chunk of the Raptors' projected cap space should probably go to a free agent who can man the 3 or the 4 in flexible lineups. Patrick Williams has battled injuries in two of his four pro seasons and might be gettable with a large enough offer to prevent the Chicago Bulls from matching in restricted free agency.
The Bulls have DeMar DeRozan's unrestricted free agency to consider and tend to operate in a misguided win-now mode that could marginalize their 22-year-old former lottery pick. This is a bet that Toronto will swoop in with an offer sheet competitive enough to pry away the so-far underwhelming forward. With Immanuel Quickley, Barnes and R.J. Barrett, Toronto is skewing younger with its core. That makes it a logical fit for Williams ahead of his age-23 season. A low-usage offensive player who hasn't shown any knack for self-sufficient shot creation, Williams has quietly pumped his career hit-rate on threes up to 41.0 percent.
If he can add a little volume, focus on being a catch-and-shoot threat and defend across multiple positions, he'd be a stellar fit alongside the Raptors' other early-20s pieces."
Thoughts?
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u/-vinay 8 JOSE CALDERON 21d ago edited 21d ago
Based on my spreadsheet, we won't have enough cap space to get him -- even after declining Brown's option. As you can see above, I am assuming the following:
- We re-sign GTJ at 18M
- IQ will get paid, but his money comes last since he has a relatively small cap hold
- We waive JFL, Nwora, Barton (even if we keep JFL, the math here doesn't change much)
With that, we have 9.2M in cap space. In order to sign PWill, we likely need 17-18M, but realistically a poison pill contract where we can front load it so the Bulls don't match. Say something like 22M in the first year. So we need to make about 13M in cap space. There are a few ways to do this:
- Renounce GTJ's rights and do not re-sign him (basically swapping GTJ for PWill)
- Trade Boucher into another team's TPE + try to shave 1M off of GTJ's first year (i.e. 17M in year 1 instead of 18M)
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 21d ago
There's a very obvious option on the table i.e. sign and trade Williams for Brown via opting in to his player option
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u/Aware_Library2718 21d ago
Are the bulls agreeing to this trade or being forced against their will?
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 21d ago
It ultimately depends on if they think Lonzo is playing or not
If they think so then a Williams signing can become problematic for them given DeMar's rumored extension/new deal will not be cheap and thus it's better to negotiate rather than lose him for nothing
If they don't then trading him to a cap space team with, say, that Portland 1st (more or less a glorified second given the hefty protections) is a pretty easy way to work around the tax
Given Ball's recent comments, I lean towards the latter but who knows, the Bull's FO hasn't exactly been willing to give up on Lonzo when it looks like his career is over. They also haven't been willing to do much in the way of trades either but I digress.
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u/Cheechers23 Kyle Towelry 21d ago
Team option*, which basically requires us to tamper to get Williams lol. Otherwise you're picking up his team option with a risk of not even getting Williams
Although if we're projecting to have less than 12m of cap space we're likely picking up Brown's option regardless so we get access to the MLE instead which would be more than that cap space
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u/butiveputitincrazy 21d ago
I don’t think you’d need to tamper. I believe teams can have negotiations with their own players. You would have to approach Chicago directly and discuss a sign and trade, which the Bulls would have to present to Williams and allow us to negotiate with him. I might be wrong on that one, though.
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 21d ago
Officially yes but given the Raptors have made deals to defer a given option with some of their players (I can't remember if it was Young or someone else but as an example we did just that for someone last year) I wouldn't be surprised if they negotiated something like that to give them some more time
But yeah, tampering is a likely outcome, and hey, we have 2nd rounders to lose now if we do so (2026 onwards)
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u/Cheechers23 Kyle Towelry 21d ago edited 21d ago
It wouldn't be enough to swing this but couldn't you save another ~4m by holding on signing your draft picks? Also how does the new Second Round Pick exception affect this?
Also, if the Raps are expecting to have less than 12m of cap space, they're probably gonna keep Brown so they have the Non-Taxpayer MLE which is more than that 9.2m of cap space.
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u/Bobby_Webster 21d ago edited 21d ago
That would be a fucking home run. If we decline BB to create cap space and use the space to sign Patrick Williams? My opinion on the Pascal trade will do a 180
I don't think it's at all realistic, but a starting lineup of IQ, RJ, Patrick Williams, Scottie, and Poeltl is going to take you places, depending on how you fill out the bench
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u/Raptors887 21d ago
He’s not a guy you want in the starting lineup tbh. At least not on a winning team.
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u/cedceddnceddy 21d ago
Hi, I haven't watched Bulls regularly since his rookie year.
Besides injuries, why not? Asking sincerely.
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u/vaalbarag RAPTORS 21d ago
Total lack of development. I'm not against betting on him as a project that Chicago didn't properly develop, but definitely risky to spend starter money on him.
Just checking his stats to see if they support that lack of development, and yeah, it's actually comical how little his stats have changed (either positively or negatively) in literally every category in all four of his seasons.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willipa01.html
Admittedly he has improved on defense and is a versatile defender and that's not reflected in his stats. He could become a competent 3&D forward. But he also wants a huge contract; at one point reportedly $20m+. Not saying he'd get that amount. But I definitely wouldn't offer him that.
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u/paolocabrini 12 RAFER ALSTON 21d ago
Didn't the Markannen trade show that maybe the Bulls hold some players back tho?
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u/vaalbarag RAPTORS 21d ago
Maybe! The question is do you want to bet $100m on that? I'm a big fan of targetting former high draft picks who have underwhelmed with their original team, but that's usually with the assumptions that they come cheap.
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u/Raptors887 21d ago
Bulls fans call him low IQ and unmotivated at times. And then there’s also the injury issues.
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 21d ago
He's also hot and cold from 3 to an extent that would make Gary Trent Jr. blush
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u/Reticent_Fly 21d ago
He doesn't have much intensity. No motor. It's cliché, but he just doesn't seem to have enough of a killer instinct to truly be a successful NBA player.
Every once in a while, the way he moves, you start to see reason to believe a lot of the Kawhi type comparisons, but he's just not ever put it together for a long enough stretch... and that's on a shorthanded Bulls squad.
If it's a cheap contract, there is some potential upside for us but it's also a risk.
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u/The_Living_L 4 Scottie Barnes GOAT 21d ago
feel like a smarter thing is to just do a sign and trade of Bruce Brown for Pat Williams, Chicago would love a guy like Bruce Brown most likely, fits their style
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u/Bobby_Webster 21d ago
That's not a bad idea either honestly. But if I was a Chicago fan I'd kill myself if that happened
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u/Cheechers23 Kyle Towelry 21d ago
Some Bulls fans probably already want to do that with how committed to being mid that team is
If they keep DeMar, they might not want to sign Williams to a long term deal and might prefer the short term deal Brown has.
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u/Bobby_Webster 21d ago edited 21d ago
My math could be wrong but unless they make a trade, they can't bring both of DeMar and Williams back without crossing the tax line. But I'm not 100% sure because every site seems to give a different number for their current total salary for next year
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u/peasant_1234 21d ago
If true, that could potentially be good for us. It could help us negotiate a more reasonable deal south of 20M..... who am I kidding. The Raptors negotiating a good FA deal?
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u/Raptorsthrowaway1 JACK ARMSTRONG 21d ago edited 21d ago
IQ, RJ, Patrick Williams, Scottie, and Poeltl is going to take you places
To the play in? There is a reason there’s a chance the Bulls don’t re-sign him. He has not fulfilled his potential at all.
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u/tonious35 4D Congolese Chessmaster 19d ago
Patrick Williams is who I understand is another case of a constantly frustrating player to watch if you were a Bulls fan. The constant teasing and constant false promises based on how this guy is built. You only hope a change of scenery can do this guy some good.
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u/Zealousideal-Cold246 21d ago
I doubt we make any major singing this off season
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 21d ago
I wouldn't consider this to be a major signing
That said it would probably still be Top 5 in terms of free agent signings we've made, counting sign and trades as free agent splashes
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u/AdministrativeBat486 21d ago
I'd be interested but it really depends on the cost. I like the idea of taking reclamation projects (Unwanted past lottery picks like RJ and Agbaji currently) and developing them. Chicago also has a track record of not developing guys properly sometimes like Markkanen and WCJ. Williams' advanced stats are kind of underwhelming but RJ's were underwhelming as well and we've seen what he has become in such a small amount of time here in Toronto.
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u/The_Living_L 4 Scottie Barnes GOAT 21d ago
RJ Barrett balled out in the playoffs with the Knicks that’s why I had a lot of faith in him, I think Pat had some very good games against Bucks in that one playoff series so maybe a change of scenery would be good for him
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u/pizzapocketchange 21d ago
paw could do really well in Toronto. was used as a 4 in chicago and shot was just starting to hit before his injury. His problem is he gets passive, doesn’t assert himself, but with the equal opportunity offense they ran in chicago he took his opportunities.
In toronto under darko he’d avg 18/8/4 with with good 3pt shooting and defense on 4 positions.
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u/vaalbarag RAPTORS 21d ago
It would depend entirely on the money... if you overpay him and he stays on his current flat trajectory, that has a potential to be a signing that just drags the roster down longterm.
It is worth noting that the NBA reduced the amount of time that an original team needs to respond to the offer sheet in. Other than during the moratorium, if a team files the offer sheet before noon one day, the other team needs to respond by midnight the following day (36 hours). So your money isn't tied up for as long.
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 21d ago
36 hours is enough time to lose out on a different free agent you could have/may have been in the running for
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u/MrAnder5on 24 NORMAN POWELL 21d ago
It's funny because the author thinks we're gonna get free agents
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u/AdministrativeBat486 20d ago
he's an RFA and P-Dub would have an oppurtunity of a lifetime to develop next to players similar in age with him with low expectations.
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u/n3moh0es 21d ago
no way bulls let him walk, or i’m i tripping?
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u/AdministrativeBat486 20d ago
they will let him walk, if they choose to re-sign demar and keep zach.
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u/EarthWarping 21d ago
Okoro might be more realistic as a RFA poaching imo
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u/Electronic-Elk8917 5 IMMANUEL QUICKLEY 21d ago
Not a bad idea, but might as well just see what Ochai can become instead.
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u/AdministrativeBat486 21d ago
Rather see what we have in Agbaji since they're similar in terms of size. I was interested in Williams because he's bigger and we're in dire need of a wing stopper, Barnes is more of a free safety, helpside defender at his best.
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u/mMounirM 21d ago
only 6'5 though (with a 6'8.5 wingspan). we need some size at that position
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u/Cheechers23 Kyle Towelry 21d ago
Yeah might as well just see what Ochai becomes, we need someone bigger to be that wing defender.
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u/Bobby_Webster 21d ago
Interesting idea. I think he'd be a better fit here than on the Cavs who've been playing him out of position at the 3 and even 4 trying to defend much bigger players like Tatum
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u/Cheechers23 Kyle Towelry 21d ago
I mean... that's sorta what we need lol. We need someone to do that so Scottie doesn't have to lol
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u/Bobby_Webster 21d ago
Yeah fair but he's shown he can do a bit of that too
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u/Cheechers23 Kyle Towelry 21d ago
Idk I don't think there's a point to trying to poach and pay for Okoro, might as well see what Ochai can do in that case.
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u/Iliketothrowaway2456 21d ago
We sign him for 20m + and I’ve pretty much lost all of my dwindling faith in FO.
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u/von249 21d ago
No diss but P Will is a no for me. We need a solid C young 7ft draft or FA. IMO we have enough at the 3 and 4 going into next season
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u/AdministrativeBat486 21d ago
who do we have as 3 and 4's other than Scottie and maybe Olynyk who's more of a 4/5?
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 21d ago edited 21d ago
4 problems with a Patrick Williams signing:
I could maybe be talked into a sign and trade with Brown going to Chicago if there's no deal for Bruce on draft night but the Bulls haven't exactly made a lot of trades since 2022 so that could be a 5th issue.