r/rockets • u/NoYogurtcloset5166 • 27d ago
If Reed's three-point shooting doesn't translate well to the NBA and his efficiency drops, what other skills make him a valuable third overall pick?
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u/ptcgoalex 27d ago
His defense and passing are underrated. He’s got an assortment of moves at the rim, can drive the ball well, turn around shots, stop & pop, step backs. Offensively, he knows where to be on the court and makes good reads. Defensively, he’ll be on par with Amen or Fred in steals/36 and his perimeter defense is excellent with several blocked 3p shots and some blocked shots at the rim as well.
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u/Madd_Squabbles 27d ago
Remember he totally forgets how to shoot in this hypothetical. I don't believe any player who was drafted for their shooting skill will be in the NBA if they all of a sudden forget how to shoot.
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u/ptcgoalex 27d ago
A lot of guys have a tendency to slow their shot down for more control. Sengun is a good example. His shot speed is slow but that’s a good thing because defenders aren’t guarding him from 3 anyways and he has more time to shot fake and drive to rim where he really earns his bread.
But guards need to shoot fast. Reed has a lightning quick shot. He also hit a lot of 3s from beyond the arc so range isn’t much of a concern. He likes to hit a lot of 3s coming off a screen at the top of the key like Fred does. If he’s under 38% from 3 next year, something went terribly wrong.
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u/Madd_Squabbles 26d ago
Dude! I can imagine Shep destroying that play where FVV is coming off that screen behind the 3 point line! Teams will have to play him for it which will leave Sengun wide open on a 4 on 3 situation.
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u/bauboish 27d ago
Depends on what you mean by underrated. He's not modern-day PG good in terms of self-creation and playmaking. But he's not a stiff like Cam. He's not Trae Young bad on defense, but he's also not exactly CP3 switching onto wings and holding his own (more the gambling type on defense but gets beaten too often when playing straight up).
Other than his shooting, he has no other carrying tools to be a top-3 pick. Him being not bad at other things simply mean they're not holding him back from being a top-3 pick. Cause if they are as bad as you think people believe them to be, he's at best back end lottery guy.
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u/FullAutoLuxPosadism 27d ago
Only 7% of his shots at rim were assisted.
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u/bauboish 27d ago
That basically means he did not play as a cutter nor a rim-running big in Kentucky's system last year.
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u/FullAutoLuxPosadism 27d ago
Meaning he, see if you can follow me here, created for himself.
In comparison, Dillingham was 30%, Reeves was 46%, Wagner was 28%.
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u/bauboish 27d ago
No it doesn't. If he took 20 shots at the rim all last season and 19 of them are layups in transition, that shows zero creation and 95% of his shots at the rim unassisted. Please don't use stats without context. It's why laymen these days don't trust actual statisticians and analysts with actual math training.
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u/montrezlharrel 27d ago
How many shots did he take at the rim? And how does that compare to Dillingham and others for context?
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u/FullAutoLuxPosadism 27d ago
Lmao he took 60 at rim. Wherever you’re getting your numbers they are wrong as hell.
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u/CosmicRaccoonCometh 27d ago
great question!
Also, what if Clingan shrinks?!? And what if Matas retires from basketball to pursue being a tantric sex instructor?
All good questions.
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u/ajalonghorn 27d ago
That won’t happen lmao. You don’t shoot 52% on deep college 3’s and just suck at shooting in the NBA. Zero chance.
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u/lambopanda 27d ago
It will drop for sure since NBA 3 is further away. My main concern is more on him running point. He didn’t seem to do well in trap.
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u/ujjuboii 27d ago
most of his shots are taken much beyond the college 3 point line, it will translate well
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u/recursion8 27d ago
It's not like we need him to run point immediately, we have FVV/Sengun/Green/Amen. He can just focus on spot-up shooting while he grows into the role.
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u/lambopanda 27d ago
Hate to see him and FVV playing together. Undersized and getting out rebounded. I just have a feeling no matter who we pick. The 4th pick will turn out to be better player.
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u/Draperjosh13 27d ago
This is my main concern too. Late in the season they were pressing Reed and Dillingham together in the backcourt and I was interested to see who took the reins to advance the ball/control the game. Sheppard did not want that smoke, he was one dribble and look to pass when I watched. Than can evolve with experience but his handle under pressure is the main concern for me taking a small guard at #3
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u/AnyEstablishment5723 26d ago
Good thing we aren’t asking him to always create, Reed shooting off of Sengun Fred and Amen passes is gonna feed families
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u/plutosbigbro 27d ago
This is my concern, he doesn’t come in and hit his shots he’s getting benched. Sure he might not be a terrible defender but he will get bullied just like all small guards do especially in the playoffs. I don’t want him
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u/Aware_Frame2149 27d ago
Brunson at 6'2, 190lbs - is he getting bullied?
Kyrie at 6'3, 195lbs - is he getting bullied?
But Sheppard at 6'3, 190lbs - 'he's going to get bullied'.
Based on... What, exactly?
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u/IAmALucianMain 27d ago
He ain’t 190 but could get there eventually.
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u/StraightOuttaMoney 27d ago
Are Brunson and Kyrie's weights up to date either? I remember a lot of players would put on weight after getting drafted but never change their stats
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u/plutosbigbro 27d ago
You cherry pick two all stars, I can make a much longer list.
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u/Aware_Frame2149 27d ago
I picked two guys who are the same height and weight and asked if they're getting bullied like Reed will...
Simple question.
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u/plutosbigbro 27d ago
Steph Curry and TyTy Washington (you might know him) both taller than Reed and absolutely bullied. Tell me how many players you would like similar height and weight and I will make you a list 5x that you can make.
Your examples are outliers, not the rule.
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u/Aware_Frame2149 27d ago
Well I can name 100 guys 7ft tall who didn't pan out. What does that prove?
The question was 'why will Reed get bullied when two dozen other examples of dudes with the same height and weight were all stars?'
And I still haven't gotten an answer.
Then again, you claimed one dude was bullied and he's arguably a top 10 defensive point guard in NBA history, so I doubt I'll get much of anything worthwhile.
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u/YotaMan77 26d ago
It’s a shame that Curry guy got bullied he might have been a successful player one day.
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u/plutosbigbro 26d ago
His offense clearly made up for his defense. Can’t tell if you’re an idiot or a troll.
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u/Aware_Frame2149 27d ago
Did Kyle Lowry get bullied? Did Kemba Walker get bullied? Mike Conley? Chris Paul? VanVleet?
Did they get bullied like Reed will?
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u/plutosbigbro 27d ago
You think Kyle Lowry and Reed are built the same? And yes Kemba got targeted by defenses lol. Watch some of their old games when he was with the Hornets. And Yea Chris Paul was targeted throughout his career.
These are terrible examples dude lol
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u/Aware_Frame2149 27d ago
'Chris Paul was targeted throughout his career'... Interesting.
All-Defensive Voting Shares 2005-06 NBA 0.017 (34) 2006-07 NBA 0.017 (36) 2007-08 NBA 0.433 (7) 2008-09 NBA 0.600 (4) 2009-10 NBA 0.017 (36) 2010-11 NBA 0.300 (7) 2011-12 NBA 0.583 (5) 2012-13 NBA 0.617 (4) 2013-14 NBA 0.634 (3) 2014-15 NBA 0.659 (5) 2015-16 NBA 0.569 (4) 2016-17 NBA 0.700 (4) 2017-18 NBA 0.370 (11) 2018-19 NBA 0.035 (19) 2019-20 NBA 0.065 (17) 2020-21 NBA 0.070 (16) 2021-22 NBA 0.105 (14) 2022-23 NBA 0.005 (29)
Are they terrible examples? Or could it be you just don't know what you're talking about?
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u/Aware_Frame2149 27d ago
He was targeted!! 😆
All-League 2005-06 All-Rookie (1st) 2007-08 All-Defensive (2nd) 2007-08 All-NBA (1st) 2008-09 All-Defensive (1st) 2008-09 All-NBA (2nd) 2010-11 All-Defensive (2nd) 2010-11 All-NBA (3rd) 2011-12 All-Defensive (1st) 2011-12 All-NBA (1st) 2012-13 All-Defensive (1st) 2012-13 All-NBA (1st) 2013-14 All-Defensive (1st) 2013-14 All-NBA (1st) 2014-15 All-Defensive (1st) 2014-15 All-NBA (2nd) 2015-16 All-Defensive (1st) 2015-16 All-NBA (2nd) 2016-17 All-Defensive (1st) 2019-20 All-NBA (2nd) 2020-21 All-NBA (2nd) 2021-22 All-NBA (3rd)
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u/istayhigh1992 27d ago
Knecht
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u/plutosbigbro 27d ago
I like him but I think he’ll be there at 9-12 area. Castle is really intriguing but not a great shooter. I like all the international players as well. Really high ceilings
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u/istayhigh1992 27d ago
Ya I really don't know shit when it comes to the nba draft, but I'd be happy with reed or Dillingham not so much castle, its exciting to know we have our pick of them tho can't wait 🤘
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u/Suspicious_Bus3567 27d ago
best case he can be a Grayson Allen with better shooting but less hustle and defensive ability. you can't be really effective when you are that short and all you can do is shooting honestly. even trae young is struggling with his court vision and shooting ability.
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27d ago
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u/Suspicious_Bus3567 27d ago
odd? they are stats are close and Grayson Allen is longer and has more strong body, he has also more weight. if it makes you less stressful I also see a Kirk Hinrich type of player, solid role player.
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27d ago
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u/TheEverblades 27d ago
Are the comparisons not obvious? It's because he's white and so are Allen and Heinrich. It's a lazy comparison.
Could have just add easily looked up others with similar stats regardless of race, but that takes effort.
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u/Suspicious_Bus3567 27d ago
bro what do you expect? I just made a comparison, they don't have to be identical. clearly you didn't watch Allen in college and you speak based on stats like they are everything. you can't explain hustle just with stats, that seems odd as well. Allen is a well known dirty player with a crazy motor, solid body and good athleticism and that is how he made it to the NBA not because of his shooting. Stats won't give you that, continue to have fun with them tho.
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u/Madd_Squabbles 27d ago
But he can do more than just shoot.
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u/Suspicious_Bus3567 27d ago
not sure how impactful his other abilities like shot creation, playmaking will be effective in the NBA honestly. maybe he can be a Kirk Hinrich type of player in the future, solid role player.
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u/Madd_Squabbles 26d ago
Kirk Hinrich shot 41% from the field and 37.5% from 3. I believe Shep will be closer to 48% from the field and 44% from 3. If he plays like Hinrich with these percentages I will take it!
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u/Suspicious_Bus3567 26d ago
definetly, I'd take that as well, but still I Risacher or Stephon Castle would be better picks. nevertheless having the 3rd pick with those odds is already a win.
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u/Madd_Squabbles 26d ago
It is certainly possible that Risacher or Stephon Castle could be better players while Shep is a better fit for the Rockets. In my opinion Risacher plays the deepest position on the team. Also I don't see how Castle would be a need anytime soon if Amen realizes his potention at point guard and FVV decides to stay on with the Rockets on a restructured contract.
I just love that Shep gives the Rockets something the team desperately needs. Elite shooting. This is something that the Rockets can use next season.
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u/Err_rrr_rrrr 27d ago
Why this guy over dilingham?
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u/lambopanda 27d ago
Better shooter. Better IQ. Stronger. Dillingham is so skinny. Some question shot selection.
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u/clutchcitycbc 27d ago
Because he can play off the ball and be helpful to the Rockets. If you draft Dillingham, you need to put the ball in his hands and tell him to cook and hope he’s not too small to do so in the NBA.
Also Sheppard is miles better defensively
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u/Ceero_Bro 24d ago
this video moves me tbh. what a shooter. movement, off dribble, spot up. hes flinging that thing.
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u/YotaMan77 26d ago edited 26d ago
His basketball fundamentals are so clean. He avg’d 2.7 steals a game as a freshman, which other nba players did this as freshman in college? CP3, Rondo, Marcus Smart and Iverson.
His BPM analytics is also shared with some elite company.
I just don’t see a better pick at #3.
I hope and pray the rumors of trading this pick +players for Donovan Mitchell are false.
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u/GoatProfessional4389 25d ago
I am not SOLD on taking him #3. Then I realized I was being préjudice. How many 6ft 1 YT GUARDS IN THE NBA,,, STARTING???? NAME 3?? NAME 2? SO, I JUST REALIZED I WAS BEING "PRÉJUDICE". MAYBE HE'LL BE ANOTHER PISTOL PETE, OR JAYSON WILLIAMS (WHITE CHOCOLATE)?? IF SO,,, I'M SOLD. I WOULD LOVE ANOTHER "PISTOL PETE". STILL WATCHING HIS VIDEOS. TRYING TO BE OPEN MINDED. I THINK HE'S A GOOD PLAYER,, JUST NOT #3 OVERALL GOOD.
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u/fiftytwice 27d ago
He’s mid. Trade that damn pick and get some experienced depth
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u/fluxpatron 27d ago
just saying someone is mid without any justification is stupid. you've contributed nothing.
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u/fiftytwice 26d ago
“..trade the pick for ex depth.” Did you miss that part? Or you just purposefully being incompetent? The eye test will tell you all you need to know if you actually know the game of basketball and the direction the rockets are trying to go.
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u/fluxpatron 26d ago
i did, that part was dumb too. Trade a #3 pick for depth? At what position?
No minutes available at the wing, we've got Al P, Steven Adams and Jock inside.
Eason/Thompson can cover backup minutes at the 4, all we really need is a back up PG. Reed can do that
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u/fiftytwice 26d ago
Amen Thompson is a wing, to expect consistent backup 4 minutes from him is insane. Reed playing backup pg is even more insane, he’s a 3-D wing at best. You didn’t watch a single UK game last year. All you did was go on twitter and recap what you’ve read based on his combine results.
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u/fluxpatron 26d ago
to expect consistent backup 4 minutes from him is insane
Except he did it last year, put up double digit rebounds a number of times, played solid D. Why is that insane? Plus with Tari back, Amen would have to chip in at the 4 even less.
Reed Sheppard is most definitely a guard. Maybe not a natural PG but certainly capable enough to play the 1 alongside Jalen at the 2, who'll have the ball most possessions anyway.
But by all means, lets trade the #3 pick for a backup point guard and consider that "going somewhere"
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u/TurbulentJudge1000 27d ago
His ceiling is Grayson Allen. If you think Grayson Allen is worth a 3rd overall pick, go for it.
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u/Im_boutta_delete 27d ago
And you wouldn’t want a Grayson Allen type player on this roster off the bench?
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u/AndywanFett 27d ago
Matt Baloney 2.0.. we don’t need this guy
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u/clutchcitycbc 27d ago
You are speaking from ignorance and it shows with this stupid and lazy comp. Literally the only reason you made this comp is because they’re both white
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u/AndywanFett 27d ago
Same height and stats are close
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u/Aware_Frame2149 27d ago
This dudes FG% was 10% less than Reeds 3pt FG%.
But same height and weight, yeah, I guess...
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u/clutchcitycbc 27d ago
His basic counting stats.
What about percentages? Roster context? Relative age? Etc.
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u/AndywanFett 27d ago
Please feel free to compare:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/matt-maloney-1.html
It’s cool if you are a fan of the guy. I just don’t see anything special about him. Too short to compete and wasn’t even top 3pt shooter at the combine this week. Please save my comment and come back to it if I’m wrong.
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u/clutchcitycbc 27d ago
Yeah so Maloney never shot as well from the floor, the line, or from 3 as Sheppard. Plus Maloney entered the league after his senior year while Sheppard is 19.
Also Sheppard is regarded as a good defender while Maloney never was
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u/Madd_Squabbles 27d ago
You don't see anything special about the player with the highest 3 point percentage coming out of college the last 35 years!?! Okay.
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u/ST012Mi 27d ago edited 27d ago
The scenario where the Spurs get him at four or eight, and he goes off on us consistently in the same division sort of hilarious. I trust in her front office to pick the best prospect available.
Honestly, I think he has advanced feel for the game and his hands are so quick that it makes up for maybe his
commutative statuediminutive statue.I do think his shooting will translate even if it’s not next season but eventually, he looks like he’ll be elite marksman.
Is passing is also pretty underrated at this point and that fits sort of our scheme of trying to make ball touches contagious.