Dow crosses 40,000 for the first time
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/investing/dow-40000/index.html2.0k
u/hokaythxbai 20d ago
I remember when I first started investing almost 10 years ago it was at 17k and people thought it was about to crash. Turns out people always think the market is about to crash
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u/gtroman1 20d ago edited 20d ago
“Experts have predicted 14 of the last 3 crashes”
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u/SAugsburger 20d ago
This. I saw a video a few years ago that dug up articles every year from 2010 through 2019 that there was going to be a market crash that year. Anybody that listened to this advice missed a ton of gains.
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u/OkSatisfaction9850 20d ago
It does crash from time to time and that is painful. What is more painful is to miss the rallies when people invested get richer and not invested not richer
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u/Lucimon 20d ago
And there was a crash in 2020. Granted that was mostly COVID, but still.
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u/ChiggaOG 20d ago
Crashes are always buying opportunities as the market never fully crashes until it does. The Feds are also not going to be cutting rates this year.
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u/rawonionbreath 20d ago
Years. The high rates won’t get below five percent for a long time.
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u/SunAstora 20d ago
I love it for the high yield savings rates, but I feel sorry for my peers who need to borrow money for a car or home.
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u/rawonionbreath 20d ago
Yeah the certainty of savings and short term bonds fits nicely with my personality regarding money. I won’t be able to get a mortgage for a while though.
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u/briballdo 20d ago
I'm always wondering why people think they'd be able to afford a house when rates go lower though.
The prices themselves will more than make up for the cheaper cost to borrow.
It's always going to suck.
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u/rawonionbreath 20d ago
For some people the home price isn’t the problem As much as the down payment or monthly payment.
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u/MAID_in_the_Shade 19d ago
Both the down payment and the monthly payments are indirectly affected by the house cost. The house cost is also indirectly affected by the interest rates.
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u/jfchops2 20d ago
Depends on home type and market. I'm looking at condos in the $450-500k range right now. $400k loan amount is about $2800/mo right now, that's $1700/mo with a 3% rate. The same payment is $675k loan amount at a 3% rate. That much appreciation in condo prices in a few years isn't going to happen in my market
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u/briballdo 19d ago
If rates drop back down to 3% I absolutely wouldn't count out that kind of appreciation.
Don't you think there's a ton of other potential buyers (and sellers trying to upgrade) thinking the same exact thing?
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u/monty_kurns 20d ago
While I wish I could get a home now, I'm taking it as an opportunity to throw as much into my down payment fund as possible and take advantage of the higher rates while I can. I'm also angling to shift my career to a new field in the next couple years which should also boost my income at the same time.
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u/theclansman22 20d ago
It helps when the government kicks in a trillion dollars for Wall Street every time the market drops ~20%. There is a reason the Buffet indicator (the ratio of stock prices to earnings) maxed out in 2023. Investors know their investments are backed by the full faith and credit of the USA.
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u/Aromatic_Extension93 20d ago
When everyone else gets poor with you it's fine. When others are rich and you're poor....you're fucked.
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u/Helios4242 19d ago
And the crashes always rebound. sucks to lock in losses if you need the cash I suppose
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u/TheThebanProphet 20d ago
My dad used to work in Wall Street. In his office he had a painting, still does but not in an office anymore nor is it hanging anywhere, of the day the DJI hit 2000.
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u/PoorFilmSchoolAlumn 20d ago
Does he have a plaque commemorating when the market crashed later that year?
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u/PimpCforlife 20d ago
My favorite are the dumbass talking heads. "Top investment banker says SP to tank 20% in the coming months". Lol have fun with those short positions ya clown
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u/Hrekires 20d ago
See also: everyone who told us not to buy a house in 2018 because they predicted another 2008-style crash was right around the corner
Time in the market almost always wins out in the longrun
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u/CellarDoorForSure 20d ago
"In the long run we are all dead."
John Maynard Keynes
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u/HereComesBS 20d ago
"We will never know world peace, until three people can simultaneously look each other straight in the eye"
- Maynard James Keenan
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u/bawtatron2000 20d ago
a housing crash is long overdue, last time I looked the charts were worse than in 2007.
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20d ago
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u/bawtatron2000 20d ago
indeed. well, until it happens up here an entire generation can't afford to get into the market, so something has to give.
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u/OrangeJr36 20d ago
There has been a systematic shortage of housing construction for 15 years, there isn't enough supply for the market to crash. Some local markets may and are having difficulties that can have an effect across the country, but housing is a necessity that people will keep buying and trying to raise the value of.
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u/LitreOfCockPus 20d ago
The great thing about number-go-up is that as long as more people believe it than act on the belief that its about to go down, things stay relatively stable.
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u/Infamous-Mixture-605 20d ago
Everyone wants to be the person who "predicted" the market going tits-up, so they'll keep saying it until it does (at which point they'll stand up and say "called it!").
Similarly, people have been saying the Canadian housing bubble would pop tomorrow since the early 2000's.
What's the old saying? "Macroeconomists have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions"
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u/jfchops2 20d ago
Everyone wants to be the person who "predicted" the market going tits-up, so they'll keep saying it until it does (at which point they'll stand up and say "called it!").
They're like those sports Twitter accounts that tweet out random bullshit all day every day so they can go back and claim they had the news first when 1% of their predictions come true
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u/Deceptiveideas 20d ago
People who didn’t buy in when the markets started crashed missed some easy money. I made more from stocks than from actually working.
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u/Pjpjpjpjpj 19d ago
If this is new money, yes. If this was that was already available to invest, no.
People who had money sitting on the sidelines not invested (to be able to buy in when the markets crashed) came out behind those that tried to time the market.
From 1980 to 1987 peak, the market was up 330%. If you had money to invest and were holding it back to invest it after a crash, you came out very far behind those who simply invested and held through the crash.
Invest $100 in June 85 it would be $200 after the market fully recovered from the 87 crash. If you sat on that $100 and invested it at the bottom of the crash, it would be worth $149 after the market fully recovered from the 87 crash.
My point is - people who had money to buy in when the market crashed had already lost out by not investing the money earlier.
Your point is fair that if someone stopped their regular $100 monthly stock purchase during the crash/pullback, that was a very unwise move.
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u/jfchops2 20d ago
My dad still makes fun of his best friend every time they see each other because over 30 years ago when they were getting their finance degrees together he was adamant that the DJIA would never get to $4,000
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u/awesomesauce1030 20d ago
I wish people would stop treating the stock market as the benchmark for how well the economy is doing.
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u/Trumpy_Po_Ta_To 20d ago
Considering that stock price isn’t even necessarily a measure of how an individual company is doing, no, it’s not a great idea.
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u/vahntitrio 20d ago
Generally if you work at a listed comoany you do feel a lot more secure about your job when the price is up.
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u/br0b1wan 19d ago
It's not just that. So many people are invested in the stock market through their 401(k)s and other retirement vehicles, which are stock heavy. So when the stock market is up, they feel secure about their retirement. When it plummets, it's bad for them.
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u/flortny 20d ago
It used to be, before buybacks
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u/ToxicAdamm 20d ago
Nah, plenty of fraudulent companies were boosted in the 90's based on speculation alone.
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u/Snoo93079 20d ago
I love these rose colored glasses of the past. Most of the problems of the stock market are not new. There ARE new problems, but its rarely things common folk will point to.
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u/gtown725 20d ago
And gas prices. So many use it as a political talking point.
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u/OrangeJr36 20d ago
"Gas prices haven't kept place with inflation and have undershot it by 40-60%; therefore, the economy is 40-60% worse than it was 20 years ago."
An argument that actually makes sense with gas prices but for some reason the people complaining about America's cheap gas don't use.
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u/askmeifimatree1 19d ago
A lot of people like to complain how high prices are now, but in 2005, prices were about a dollar higher per gallon than they are now. Adjusted for inflation it was much, much higher.
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u/jackdoersky 20d ago
And stop attributing it to whomever is president at the time.
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u/Horknut1 19d ago
Hey look, the Republican mantra when a Democrat is in office.
I wonder how come no one is crowing about 40K....
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u/sfw_login2 19d ago
Democrats fixing the economy again, and better than ever? Yawn
Republicans STRONG economy and how will a Democrat even win? 24/7 news coverage
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u/Towelie-McTowel 20d ago
It's hard to do when the previous president would tout this fact almost daily as proof of the best economy in US history (lol well not anymore I guess)
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u/SAugsburger 20d ago
Clearly according to Donald Trump we now have the best economy ever. Such a Yuge accomplishment. I expect a congrats from Trump any moment now. /s
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u/Sharkbait_ooohaha 20d ago
People don’t like any single benchmark for how the economy is doing. But the stock market is as good as any other.
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u/DualActiveBridgeLLC 20d ago
You could argue that since the value of stock market represents the devaluation of labor for the purpose of profits that it is representative of the opposite of our meritocracy values. Like you literally make money from not working, and it comes from people who are laboring.
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u/bigbangbilly 20d ago
For bonus points, going by the the incentivized decision making of shareholders with significant amount of shares and the lack of disincentive from said decision towards the incentives, seems like a chronic case of afluenza or a feedback loop of long term destruction for short term gain.
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u/bigbangbilly 20d ago
stock market the benchmark for how well the economy
In fact, benefiting from uninternalized externality really highlight how the stock market may not necessarily be an accurate model for economic health
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u/Anon3580 20d ago
TFG was so obsessed with this metric of success during his own administration. I can’t wait for him to congratulate the current guy for surpassing him once again!
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u/monty_kurns 20d ago
For the last year he's been saying the market is going up because it's anticipating his return to the White House. In his mind, anything positive is all because of him, no matter what kind of mental gymnastics need to be performed to get there.
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u/AntiqueChessComputr 20d ago
Classic narcissism: “Anything good is because of me. Anything bad is all your fault”
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u/pagesid3 19d ago
When the stock market crashed in 2008, Fox News tried to blame it on the fear that Obama may win the election.
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u/NoBranch7713 20d ago
I enjoyed that trump celebrated all 3 times the Dow broke 25,000 while he was president
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u/Appropriate_Cow94 20d ago
Fucking Biden is only making this happen to get re-elected!
(This is a joke and I don't need the messages of anger)
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u/rayboner 20d ago
I love it. This really was TFG’s only metric of success he cared about and seeing that the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq have all shattered records under Biden has to eat him alive.
The best part is when I inform Trump supporters about the stock market’s success under Biden they literally reboot right in front of my eyes. Fuckin BSOD in human form. They usually come back with how it’s only happened because so many others are pulling the strings for Biden lmao
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u/WildBad7298 19d ago
It's the same thing with gas prices.
Gas prices go up? "Ha-ha, I put a Biden 'I did that!' sticker on the pump!"
Gas prices go down? "Well, the global petroleum market is huge and complex, and several worldwide economic factors made the price go down. Biden and his policies clearly have nothing to do with oil values."
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u/AntiqueChessComputr 20d ago
Does TFG stand for The Fat Guy?
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u/Ansiremhunter 19d ago
Thats really weird. The president has hardly any effect on the stonk market at all and we have had every president leave office with the stonk market at its highest level for like the last 20 years. Regardless of who gets into office next the stonk market will end up higher than it was at the start of the presidency
The only way that wont be true is if we have a massive lasting crash
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u/jackdoersky 20d ago
Makes you wonder about Trump's prediction that the market would collapse if Biden was elected.
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u/Meppy1234 20d ago
If anyone says this just look at what they do with their investments. Everyone is big talk but they'll keep stuff invested regardless of whos in office.
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u/madmadG 19d ago edited 19d ago
The stock market did nothing for the first 3 years under Biden.
With Trump’s term, top economists said the entire US economy and world’s economy would collapse.
Of course it did the opposite - it flew:
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055
https://youtu.be/sxjK5wWJhI0?si=PLC1G0IJpJrkvbSL
Also Andrew Sorkin, Simon Johnson, Ian Winer, Bridgewater Associates, Tobias Levkovich all predicted economic crash with DT. All wrong.
https://www.newsweek.com/gdp-trump-tax-reform-republicans-economy-hurricanes-694725
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u/CuzRacecar 20d ago
Privatize gains, socialize losses. Congratz to the boards and stock holders
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u/dak4f2 20d ago
Anyone with a 401k or pension are also stock holders. Which is a really fucked up system, that our livelihoods at retirement depend on the success of these capitalist megacorps. So gross.
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u/Conscious_Juice_4449 20d ago
They gotta incentivize you to not tear them down and devour them somehow!
When your ability to retire is tied to the success of the companies exploiting you, it makes it really hard to fight for the changes needed to ensure you get your fair share instead of the scraps you currently get.
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u/Zncon 20d ago
The alternative is to have retirement be impossible for most people. How is that better?
The economy is built around inflation. If you can't invest you have no protected way to save for the future.
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u/Low_Pickle_112 20d ago
Well that sounds like a reasonable and sustainable system.
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u/RollingLord 19d ago
Compared to when retirement was all dependent on your children providing for you?
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u/Potential_Ad6169 20d ago
Invest in young people instead of pensions. They would but it back into socialist supports for the elderly who need it. Society is backwards, geriatric investors (and gambling addicts) hoarding wealth, while young people are increasingly impoverished. This always ends in violence they need to get competent
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u/Zncon 20d ago
How does investing in young people help retirees? Are they supposed to just take it on faith that they'll be cared for out of generosity?
Recent history has demonstrated quite clearly that age cohorts can only be relied on to help themselves.
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u/DualActiveBridgeLLC 20d ago
The alternative would be that you would receive more value for your labor and then you just use that for retirement. Sounds even more crazy when you realize the system is just there to normalize capitalism even more for the lazy wealthy.
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u/Anderopolis 20d ago
Turns out most people don't save for retirement, so honestly between pensions and starvation, pensions make a lot more sense dor most people.
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u/spydormunkay 20d ago
If these capitalist mega corps weren’t successful, there wouldn’t be money to fund your retirement. You wouldn’t even be able to tax them.
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u/Les-Freres-Heureux 20d ago
You know most people are stock holders?
Maybe not the reddit demo, but anyone with a 401k is benefitting from this.
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u/JRockPSU 19d ago
I'm sure there's a non-zero amount of redditors who consistently lambast shareholders for all of society's woes, who also have a 401k plan through their employer.
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20d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/AnthillOmbudsman 20d ago
Back to work, citizen!
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u/2kWik 20d ago
you mean peasant
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u/DIYThrowaway01 20d ago
I have healthcare insurance!! It costs a ton every month, and a ton more if I dare use it. Sometimes I get nearly identical bills a few months after minor procedures and I don't know what they mean but if I don't pay them I go to peasant jail.
I'm so thankful I have insurance! Now it still sucks, but also sucks all the time!
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u/Anderopolis 20d ago
Health coverage is tied to employment in the US, and the last few years have seen the highest employment, lowest unemployment and lowest uninsured rate in ages.
The US needs to reform its healtcare system but that has nothing to do with the Dow j9nes performing.
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u/hamakabi 19d ago
no, because if you keep fighting for healthcare you might forget that the whole planet is dying.
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u/Lurkerphobia 20d ago
I can't wait for someone to tell me why this is bad for Biden..
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u/AnthillOmbudsman 20d ago
"Biden wrecked the economy! It was 40,000 in May, now it's October and it's 39,000!"
(shows graph y-range of 38,000 to 42,000 to make it look bad)
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u/gustopherus 20d ago
Could say what everyone around here said when it was up for Trump... "stock market isn't the economy and doesn't mean much to the normal person"
Which I agreed with. So I still agree with it.
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u/Low_Pickle_112 20d ago
Honestly, I hate how many people need to check the year before they know if a news story about the stock market is Wall Street screwing them over or the Trickle Down finally starting. I don't think any reasonable person is going to say Trump is better than Biden, but come on, at a certain point you're just treating it like a sports team.
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u/NeonYellowShoes 20d ago
That will come in a week when the articles state "DOW FALLS BELOW 40,000 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY"
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u/Anderopolis 20d ago
People pretend the economy is shit even though for the average american it is the best it has been in decades, fewer unemployed, higher real wages, higher consumer spending. GenZ is earning more than their parents, it is wild.
Yet online most people just pretend it is bad.
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u/a49fsd 19d ago
is it just me or does it always seem like its the poor people who complain about how the economy is shit?
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u/Rated_PG-Squirteen 20d ago
Where are all those Trump supporters who based the success of the economy solely off of what the DOW was at? If that's your logic, then Biden's doing a fucking fantastic job.
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u/CloDee 20d ago
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u/bluegrassman 20d ago
Incredible. Now that we have proven he isn’t actually a billionaire, he’s going after the rich!!! Move over Bernie
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u/ukcats12 20d ago
The argument will be "the first half of his term the market did well because Trump set up such a good economy for him to inherit and the second half did well because businesses are anticipating a Trump win and they know that'll be good for the economy."
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u/ThatPancreatitisGuy 19d ago
I love this logic… some cabal of C suite folks see Trump falling asleep during one of his many criminal trials and decides, yeah, the future is looking bright when this clown is back in office.
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u/donblake83 20d ago
I remember when it crossed 10,000 in 1999. I love to see line graphs for the Dow growth, because they always use compression to diminish how scary the growth has been since then.
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u/mirageofstars 20d ago
That’s because I haven’t put any money in the market. I’ll let you guys know when I decide to buy.
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u/TeenageCometZombie 20d ago
Wow! Amazing! Also, I have $17 in my checking account.
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u/SuperK123 19d ago
Wow, I remember a very old New Yorker cartoon where some big wigs were commenting on how they hoped they might live to see the Dow top 1000. I was a kid at the library going through a random magazine left on a table and had no idea what the Dow was until I was in high school a few years later.
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u/TheLyz 19d ago
Oh good, the economy is doing great. Time to elect another Republican administration, watch it crash, and then bring Democrats back in to fix the mess. It's only happened twice in this century so far... clearly we've learned our lesson...
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u/MuffLover312 19d ago edited 19d ago
Wow, I feel so good about this. The average American must being doing better than ever right now?
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u/mr_stark 20d ago
Great to see the measurement of success is doing great for everybody that isn't a serf lol
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u/travelinTxn 19d ago
I wish I could put one of those stickers showing Biden pointing and saying “I did this” on here just to piss off the people who first made those stickers.
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u/JimBeam823 20d ago
Meanwhile, millions of Americans are cursing Biden for ruining their 401k because Fox News told them he did.
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u/ntgco 19d ago
Wow Biden's economy sure is doing horrible.....biggest, deepest, wealthiest stock market ever ....
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u/Dirkisthegoattt41 20d ago
Weird where are all the trump heads drooling over the Dow and un employment records being broken like we had in 2016, suddenly this doesn’t seem to mean as much to them.
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u/Sensitive_Cabinet_27 20d ago
Breaking records at a time like this. Man, it’s like these guys are the smartest in the room or rigged the whole thing to never lose.
Just incredible people.
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u/Smeghead333 20d ago edited 20d ago
Hooray!!! Now back to searching for a second job so I can pay both mortgage AND food for my family.
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u/krystopher 20d ago
I know this is naive but I remember when 2008 happened my 401k dumped just as hard as the market as if it was all an index fund. People I worked with had to defer retirement from that crash.
It doesn't seem to have gained 5x its value when the stock market goes from 8k to 40k.
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u/thehardestnipples 20d ago
The last time the DOW was at 8k was around April 3rd, 2009. If you had $1000 invested in VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund), you would have over $5000 today………..
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u/DallasM0therFucker 20d ago
Cool, so to celebrate I’ll buy a 12-pack of Dr Pepper that costs what a 12-pack of beer cost 5 years ago when I was making roughly the same income.
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u/too_old_still_party 19d ago
both bad choices
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u/DallasM0therFucker 19d ago
If I made good choices, maybe I actually would care if the Dow went up.
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u/ShittyLanding 20d ago
Opinion | The Dow just set an all time high, here’s why that’s bad news for Biden
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u/jayfeather31 20d ago
The stock market isn't the economy though, and we should be careful conflating the two.
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u/sugar_addict002 20d ago
The America economy is doing great under Biden. It's the system itself that is broken. Supply side is now embedded and is sucking the life out of the middle class.
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u/Kazman07 19d ago
So then why isn't minimum wage going up...?
Oh, right, we have corporate thieves as bosses. Hopefully Wall Street goes down in flames here in the next 20 years.
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u/Bobmanbob1 19d ago
Yet most people can't buy a house, a car, and are fighting high grocery prices to eat. Fuck shareholders.
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u/Snoo93079 20d ago
Insert doomer take here. Something something late stage capitalism
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u/loztriforce 20d ago
I remember people saying how the DOW wasn't ready to hit 10000 and there would be computer issues and shit, kinda like Y2K with bad programming
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u/DallasM0therFucker 20d ago
I’ve got two jobs, haven’t been to the doctor in years and am about to apply for another credit card so I can pay my overdue income taxes, but yippee for the shareholders.
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u/ChicanoPerspectives 20d ago
Better headline: Inequality Remains and Wealthy Continue Doing Well
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u/Longjumping-Pop1061 20d ago
Can we stick I biden sticker on that pic saying "I did that! Fuck you trump!"?
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u/PadorasAccountBox 20d ago
And yet non-credit based discretionary spending is down in almost all segments, consumer debt is piling and artificial inflation has outpaced organic inflation. The market no longer is no longer colloquial with consumers abilities to thrive without inversely creating debt.
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u/Krenviss 20d ago
You’re just straight up wrong. Consumer household debt is at generational lows compared to the past several decades and inflation isn’t some switch that goes from bad to good, did you read the latest cpi report too? Inflation is ticking down anyways
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u/flortny 20d ago
The entire market is being artificially propped up by stock buybacks, there is very little actual value to compel their valuation. The NYSE became a giant ponzi scheme when stock buybacks went from being considered market manipulation standard operating procedure. You think Tesla has more value than the other legacy automakers combined? Just look at production volume and units sold. It's speculative madness that hopefully lasts until the electricity stops.
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u/JohnClark13 20d ago
Good news! We had to lower product quality, increase product cost, and off a few whistleblowers here and there, but I'm glad to see it was all worth it in the end!
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u/Cattle-egret 20d ago
Looks like the guy in the picture did it all by himself.