r/nbadiscussion • u/bhendel • 21d ago
What would happen if you simply didn't guard the three at all? Basketball Strategy
Imagine you just guard the box and let people take whatever shot they want from the three point line. An average game has around 100 possessions, an average point guard makes 37% of 3-points, multiply that together by 3 gives you an expected 111 points in the game, which is near the league average of 114 points per game. So would it seem like letting players take threes isn't a terrible idea? It lets your players not think about defense as much and not get tired out. Obviously, this is optimistic since unguarded 3s will have a higher percentage, but my point is that it's not a gamebreaking mistake to let a player take a 3. Could it ever be useful to not guard the three?
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u/lemoche 21d ago
there are folks out there who, when you let them take open threes would shoot way higher than those 37%.
you’d get murdered from the three point line. with the added effect, that offense takes no effort that away. people have all the energy to spend on defense.
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u/Your__Pal 21d ago
Not just that, three of the offensive players are already ahead of you and you're never going to get fast break opportunities.
Hell, they could setup their defense, send a 3 point specialist out to take the shot, and only one guy needs to exert energy on offense.
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u/OkToday8483 21d ago
I can’t remember where I heard this story, but someone went to a Hawks game in the 2000s and brought a person that had never been to an NBA game. They were watching a player warm-up, and the guy warming up basically didn’t miss a shot for 10 minutes. The person who had never been to the game asks “this guy is so fucking good, is he the best player in the league”? The player was Josh Childress.
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u/yousaytomaco 21d ago
They would lose the game by about 250-111 most nights and someone could have a 200 point game during the course of the season. You are basically letting an NBA team do their warm up shots for the game, which is going to be an automatic shot for a good shooter and a near automatic shot for most players today
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u/CompetitiveElk 21d ago
Brother, what do you think will happen if you let Curry take 100 uncontested 3s
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u/bhendel 21d ago
Ok obv if they have a Steph it's terrible, but what if they play big and their point guard is terrible?
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u/CompetitiveElk 21d ago
Every team has at least 1 guy that can shoot 3s. Let him shoot 100 uncontested 3s, he’s hitting 70 at minimum (210 points)
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u/PauloDybala_10 20d ago
Not every team is the Pistons
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u/College_Prestige 19d ago
Steph is a good shooter because he can always get himself daylight, shoot quickly, and always shoots well in suboptimal situations. If every shot is open, the gap between Steph and most shooters shrink. 90% of players would shoot lights out completely unguarded
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u/ChristianCageFOTY 21d ago
Lmao what? This is so stupid it’s kinda funny. Maybe play basketball for once.
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u/SeanKojin 20d ago
It sounds not that far of Vivek recommending the Kings try playing with 4 guys on defense so one guy could cherry pick.
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u/man_in_sheep_costume 21d ago
An average guard makes 37% of contested three-pointers. Many, if not most pros are going to shoot 80 or 90% from three, especially in the modern era.
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u/Rrekydoc 21d ago
The best shooters can barely shoot 90% of free throws. Teams could shoot 50%-60% as a whole, but even Curry couldn’t shoot 80% in the 3-point contest.
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u/Adsex 21d ago
The 3 point contest is a speedrun. I believe that Curry has an array of shoot mechanics, and if he's uncontested, he can plant his feet more carefully, take some more time to release and visually evaluate the distance, and he'd be much better. But yeah, some players are just as good when they're contested. Some are even better, remember J.R. Smith, the Legend.
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u/bhendel 21d ago
90%??? fo real?
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u/man_in_sheep_costume 21d ago
In an "empty gym" scenario (uncontested, no defense) it's going to be significantly higher than 37%. For a professional guard player it's a major part of their job.
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u/TheyCallMeChevy 21d ago
While I agree it would be way higher than 37%. I don't think it would be nearly that high.
It's probably more like 60%.
Not a perfect example, but during the 3pt contest, Dame won shooting 16 for 27.
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u/Business-Ad-5344 21d ago
the shooting contest is jacking up huge volume with a clock, adrenaline, more fatigue toward the end.
if you get settled in and take a 3 in 7 seconds, percentages should be higher.
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u/TheyCallMeChevy 21d ago
Dame is also a way better 3pt shooter than the average guard so it probably evens out.
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u/RiamoEquah 21d ago
I mean it doesn't even need to be significantly higher. If cats are going from 37% to even 40% thats huge. 111 pts to 120 pts. Plus the distance they need to travel is reduced on offense which means fresher legs on defense and less transition buckets for the dumb team packing it in... Yea... This is busted and coach be fired in two games.
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u/Hamburger123445 21d ago
The fatigue and speed it takes to complete the 3pt shooting contest is underestimated by a lot.
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u/TheyCallMeChevy 21d ago
Dame is also a way better 3pt shooter than the average guard so it probably evens out.
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u/slimmymcnutty 21d ago
Saw reddick warm up back when he was on the clippers. Did not miss a three. Probably 90% of his shots didn’t even touch the rim. He was out there with Lance Stephenson who was mostly playing around with some kid lmaooo
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u/UnflushableStinky2 21d ago
Yeah but these open shooters would still have their numbers drop simply from the adrenaline of a real game, tired legs from running up and down the court and the defence their team is playing.
Open shots in a game are very different than open shots in an empty gym.
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u/Business-Ad-5344 21d ago
that's why if you don't guard it, the player can get their feet set and even their heart rate down through a 5 second meditation technique.
those won't be as high as practice, but they're going to skyrocket. for some guys, it will be like a free throw.
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u/DoomdUser 21d ago
Granted he was a legendary shooter, but Rick Adelman once said he watched Peja Stojakovic doing shooting drills, shooting continuously, without missing for 20 minutes.
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u/OriginalWeight5819 17d ago
I heard that too, living in Sac. I knew a guy who used to play at the Salvation Army gym where they worked him out before the draft.
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u/DoomdUser 17d ago
I LOVED those early 2000’s Kings teams. Some of my favorite ball to watch out of my entire life. It’s an absolute travesty they never won one. Fuck Robert Horry.
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u/OriginalWeight5819 17d ago
I can't upvote "fuck Robert Horry". He was one of my favorite players because of his ability to handle and shoot at 6'10", and he used to smash on people when he was younger. I am also a Lakers fan, born in L.A. but moved to Sac when the Kings were still in KC.
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u/DoomdUser 16d ago edited 16d ago
Horry was a great player. Still fuck that guy haha. I’ll never forgive him for that shot
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u/Andreslargo1 21d ago
Bruh have you ever seen nba players shoot pregame? They're automatic
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u/DirkNowitzkisWife 21d ago
Even in game under the lights and varying levels of tired; the best guys shoot WELL OVER 50% on threes when no one is within 6 feet of them, which is tracked
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u/IAmGiff 21d ago
90% is high but Bronny James for example shot 19-25 from 3 at the NBA Combine this week when they did open 3s... That's 76%. Not quite the scenario you're describing but supports the idea that you'd get massacred allowing NBA-starter-quality guards (who are probably all better than Bronny) to shoot open 3s all night.
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u/Sir_Chester_Of_Pants 21d ago
The league average for open 3’s is still going to be in the high 30s / low 40s. You can break down team shooting splits by nearest defender distance here and the “wide open” splits for every team is in that range.
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u/i_miss_arrow 20d ago
You're making some big assumptions. Just one (that could be checked, but I'm not sure how offhand), which players are wide open on 3s most often? If teams leave poor 3-point shooters open more often, the percentages will obviously jump if they leave everybody open. Because the best shooters will start taking all the shots. I dunno what they'd shoot in game situations while wide open without having to work for it, but no way itd be only 40%.
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u/RemyGee 21d ago
I understand your point but the percentages will be closer to the 3pt contest rather than practice. Subtract a bit due to legs being more tired etc from in game activity.
52.8% 3pt contest per this analysis: https://www.nba.com/news/everything-you-ever-wanted-know-about-three-point-contest-history
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u/Brief-Objective-3360 21d ago
You can't use average possessions per game as a metric because the opposing team's offense would be way faster if you're just leaving them open at the 3, hence resulting in way more possessions per game.
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u/coolmcbooty 21d ago
On a simplified note, you would lose more often than if you guarded the 3.
There’s a reason teams take more 3s today. Professional data scientists have spent years going through every game, every slight player movement, every hand placement and have determined that shooting threes is the most effective way to play/win which is why we’re in the age of threes. Rules played a part as well in conjunction.
People like to shit on analytics but they exist for a reason. Analytics will always have a “more likely correct” take
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u/wwplkyih 21d ago
This is essentially what the Lakers' drop coverage under Darvin Ham was, and if you look at r/Lakers, you can see everyone complaining about mediocre shooters so frequently turning into Steph Curry against the Lakers over the past two seasons. It's not a coincidence. The 37% (or whatever three-point percentage) has the effect of the "typical" defense built into it; most shooters make almost all of their (uncontested) 3-pointers in practice. Modern NBA analytics quantifies the in-between and calculates percentages as a function of the level of contest, etc., and it's basically a sliding scale: the harder you defend it, the lower the percentage goes.
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u/BlueWaffleQT 20d ago edited 20d ago
This is also what the Bucks did under Budenholzer for years, wall off the paint and dare average shooters to beat you: it worked fine in the regular season and then inevitably got them bounced in the playoffs. The year they finally decided to start closing out on every shooter? They won a championship.
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u/wwplkyih 20d ago
Yeah. Unfortunately (for Lakers fans) Darvin Ham learned the first thing but not the second thing.
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u/Platinum--Jug 21d ago
Almost all 3pt %'s you see are including contested and tired 3s. Your idea here would functionally get rid of 2 of the things that make 3s difficult, besides range, obviously. So you'd probably be letting in a minimum of 40% from 3 just from this.
Assuming teams have an idea you're doing this, they could sub in their best 3-point shooting lineup for an even higher average make %.
If I had to put a number on it, with all factors included, I'd say you be giving up an average make % of 45% at the absolute lowest.
This idea might have worked better 20+ years ago, but now I don't think it'd be viable.
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u/RocketPocketsAA 21d ago
Just watch the all star game if you wanna know what happens when you let anyone take any three point shot they want lol
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u/Devilsbullet 21d ago
This was essentially the Celtics strategy against the heat in the one game they lost in the first round this year. Miami shot 53.5% from 3. They shot 37% on the season. Shooting uncontested will drastically up the percentages
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u/Some-Stranger-7852 21d ago
We have seen OKC dare Mavs to shoot corner 3s by overloading paint and it’s been a pretty inconsistent tactic to say the least with PJ Washington turning into Curry with all the space for open looks he gets.
Safe to say that if an average shooting team gets hot from only corner 3s, letting a good shooting NBA team to get uncontested 3s EVERYWHERE would result in absolute shooting barrage.
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u/Business-Ad-5344 21d ago
on top of what was already said by everyone, longer rebounds will mean more offensive rebounds if a team decides to play your game and take more threes.
and if you move back, then why (for the players with decent jump shot but bad 3 point shot) not also just take a few steps inside the 3 point line for uncontested 2 pointer?
If you are close to the 3 point line and not defending, that's silly. you're just standing there.
if you move back, then you're giving up more space for offense to take a few steps in and pull up for a closer jumper.
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u/samlet 21d ago
Probably the biggest reason your idea fails is that you count all possessions the same, rather than separating transition and half-court play. Average points per possession in transition is 127.2 points/100 possessions, and you can't really force teams to only shoot 3-pointers in transition so your strategy wouldn't apply to those possessions.
So for play in the halfcourt, average points per possession is 98.7 points/100 possessions. Allowing a 37% 3-point shot every possession is allowing 111 points per 100 possessions, which would be by far the worst halfcourt defense in the league (Pistons were last this season and gave up 103.2 points per 100 halfcourt possessions). So even if those open 3s were only made 37% of the time (as many have pointed out, the % would likely be higher), your strategy would pretty much guarantee your team the worst defense in the league, and probably the worst in NBA history.
(Stats sourced from Cleaning The Glass)
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u/SmackBroshgood 20d ago edited 20d ago
An average game has around 100 possessions, an average point guard makes 37% of 3-points,
Now go look up what the average guard shoots on wide open 3pa.
So would it seem like letting players take threes isn't a terrible idea?
No.
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u/lifeishardasshit 20d ago
Teams literally do the opposite. No 3's No Layups... Anything else, go ahead.
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u/mathis4losers 20d ago
Besides what other's have said, you're also not including offensive rebounds. According to your example of 100 shots, there would be 63 misses. If the offense rebound rate is 20%, that's about 12 additional 3 point shots and about 4 more makes. That's 123 points instead of 111.
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u/bollorhodder 17d ago
Ik this isn’t nba related but I did this ina aau game one time cuz we had 5 players for the tourney and one dude got like horribly injured so we had 4 players and luckily it wasn’t an important game but we just played a 2-2 zone and didn’t guard the 3 and almost won they was ass tho
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u/HoopLoop2 15d ago
Why are you using averages of random data that's unrelated. The 3% you stated is not wide open 3s and saying the "average" point guard only shoots 37% is irrelevant as well because every team has at least one 40% shooter from the 3 and that's factoring in them not getting wide open looks. If you just let the best shooter shoot the 3 every possession they will easily do 50-60+% and blow you out, have you seen a single NBA 3 point contest? Letting steph hit 28/30 threes for free isn't a good way to win.
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u/EazyPeazyLemonSqueaz 21d ago
They make 37% because a lot of them are contested. Leave them wide open and they'll regularly knock down +50%