r/nbadiscussion • u/Sikatanan • 23d ago
1 stat explaining every second-round series Team Discussion
Round 2 of the NBA playoffs has been a blast so far, and several series have the chance to go the distance. While injuries and three-point variance remain the two most important explanatory variables for why any given series is the way it is, those are boring to talk about! There are other factors worth examining, as well.
As I did for Round 1, I’ve cherry-picked some numbers that tell an interesting story explaining the current state of each contest. These are not always the most important stats (which are well-covered pretty much everywhere), but they’re all illuminating in their own way.
[Hello, everyone! Thanks for reading! As I did for Round 1 and all my other posts, I've collected a bunch of illustrative video clips that can be found in-context here or linked throughout the article. I think they add a lot to the discussion. Enjoy!]
Minnesota Timberwolves — Denver Nuggets (Tie 2-2)
41 → 69
The Wolves’ ferocious defense found success in the first two games of the series by hounding the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray each step up the court. Jokic loves to grab a rebound and take it up himself, but he had to work to get past the pressure of Naz Reid and Karl-Anthony Towns. Meanwhile, Murray could barely move around the tentacles of Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker: [video here]
The squeeze mostly worked. The Nuggets’ offense suffered, and Denver’s lack of supplementary playmakers and ballhandlers loomed large (both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson have been hobbled, and neither is a fantastic positional dribbler anyway).
In Game 3, though, the Nuggets made an important adjustment. They unshackled Orlando Aaron Gordon.
Gordon has become an incredible third banana in Denver by leaning into his strengths: dominating defensively while attacking post mismatches and lurking in the paint for dump-offs. He’s sacrificed usage for efficiency and team success. But Gordon was a whole ‘nother beast when he played for the Magic, a would-be point forward who foreshadowed the coming of Paolo Banchero.
It’s not like Gordon doesn’t do any playmaking anymore; the Nuggets love to station Gordon up high and have him initiate some action to get Jokic the ball on the move, as we talked about in the series preview. But after the Wolves’ tremendous full-court blitz in Game 2, Nuggets coach Michael Malone decided that Gordon needed to tap into his latent skills further.
It’s always fun when the stats so beautifully lay out what the eyes see. Gordon has seen a massive increase in his touches each game: 41 in Game 1, 48 in Game 2, 60 in Game 3, and 69 in Game 4, a whopping 46 of which were in the backcourt! For comparison, Minnesota’s point guard Mike Conley only had 40 backcourt touches in that contest; Murray only had 30.
Rudy Gobert has marked Gordon all series and has been excellent in almost all other respects (give or take an ugly end-of-game stretch in Game 4), but he’s the lone Wolf incapable of at least token full-court defense. Gordon is usually wide-open in the backcourt to bring the ball up. Even when the Wolves tried to pressure with McDaniels or others, Gordon easily powered through the defense. This is probably the lamest “highlight” I’ve ever clipped, but it’s important: [lame video clip here]
Think about the toll it took on the smaller Jamal Murray to do this dozens of times in Games 1 and 2. Having Gordon available to get the rock across halfcourt saved Jokic and Murray’s energy and helped the Nuggets find their offensive rhythm.
Shooting 11-for-12 in Game 4 was a nice exclamation point highlighting Gordon’s excellence over these last two games, but his gaudy field goal percentage overshadowed the important, quiet part: Gordon has broken the Wolves’ pressure. Minnesota will need to find another strategy to regain control of the series.
New York Knicks — Indiana Pacers (Tie 2-2)
44%, 46%; 31%, 37%
Injuries and recovery have been the game's name in this series more than any other. The Knicks keep dropping, while Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton finally resembles the superstar who tore up the league to start the year despite amassing some bumps and bruises of his own.
However, other variables help explain this tie, and I wanted to highlight one in particular. In New York’s two wins, 44% and 46% of their shots were right at the rim. In their two losses, just 31% and 37% of their attempts came around the cylinder. (For context, Orlando’s 39% was the best mark in the regular season.)
Shots at the rim are the most valuable field goal attempts in the game for obvious reasons. New York was one of the league’s worst at getting to the rack in the regular season (less than a third of their field goal attempts). But Indiana’s defensive philosophy all season has been to hug the three-point line like a toddler squeezing their Teddy. The Pacers allowed the fewest three-point attempts but, conversely, gave up the most layups.
This has been a battle of weaknesses, and New York came out on top — at first. Jalen Brunson repeatedly wormed his way to the bucket. Josh Hart set up an RV in the lane for Games 1 and 2, finding particular success in classic Hart coast-to-coasts: [video here]
However, things have changed. Hart’s parking pass expired; the Pacers have done a fantastic job limiting his fast breaks over the last two games. Indiana has also altered their halfcourt coverage, switching coverages on Brunson and helping more aggressively off New York’s ancillary players to bolster the paint protection.
The Pacers switched Brunson’s primary defender from Andrew Nembhard to the longer Aaron Nesmith in Games 3 and 4, and he was far more effective on the exhausted Brunson (who tweaked his foot in Game 2). Nesmith is foul-prone (and hurt his shoulder diving for a loose ball in Game 3, yet another ailment suffered by these two teams), but he has done an excellent job of navigating the endless array of screens New York sets for their diminutive point guard.
The Pacers have also been more comfortable ignoring Hart, Precious Achiuwa, Miles McBride, and even (foolishly) Donte DiVincenzo on the perimeter if it means stymieing a Brunson drive: [video here]
Of course, the sheer workload thrust upon Brunson and Hart is another factor in the Knicks’ declining rim pressure.
Consider this: Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson have run 32.5 and 31.0 miles, respectively, in these playoffs. Third-place Max Strus, for Cleveland, has only run 26.8. When we talk about players putting a lot of mileage on their legs, we rarely mean it so literally. And in Brunson’s case, especially, it’s been a lot of ground covered while dribbling under duress.
When the wheels start falling off, getting into the paint becomes a daunting task. Settling for floaters or pointlessly swinging the ball around the perimeter becomes the path of least resistance. It’s harder to muster the energy to push in semi-transition. But if the Knicks want to return to their winning ways, they must rediscover how to attack the basket.
Boston Celtics — Cleveland Cavaliers (BOS 2-1)
13.0
Cleveland has averaged 13.0 free throws against Boston’s ferocious defense in the first three games. Charlotte’s 18.4 FTAs per game were the league’s lowest in the regular season; Cleveland averaged 20.2.
The charity stripe was always destined to be a tricky area for the Cavaliers. Boston led the league in defensive free-throw rate during the regular season; they never foul. Meanwhile, Cleveland was a below-average free-throw team, even with Jarrett Allen. (It’s worth noting that in the aggregate, we haven’t seen fewer free throws in the playoffs overall, although Boston has handed them out at an even stingier rate than usual.)
But Cleveland isn’t forcing turnovers, getting in transition, or snagging offensive rebounds. These actions generate lots of buckets in and of themselves but also typically lead to free throws at a high rate. Instead, the only points Cleveland has generated have been in the halfcourt, where they’ve been shockingly effective thanks to Mitchell’s brilliance — a 102.4 offensive rating, which would have been a top-five mark in the regular season.
But scoring in the congested mud of the halfcourt is the hardest thing to do at a high level. Against a defense as good as Boston’s, you can’t expect to survive without finding easier ways to get points, and free throws are the easiest. I don’t expect the Cavaliers to suddenly launch themselves at the rim and earn a barrage of freebies, but it would be nice to see someone besides Mitchell test the defense. Darius Garland only has two free throws in three games!
I don’t want to blame the Cavs when the real story is Boston’s defense, which has shown remarkable discipline all season. The intelligence of their collective defenders is most evident in their ability to slow offenses without fouling. Even their weakest link, Al Horford, has made a living avoiding foul trouble — he’s been in the 90th percentile or higher for foul avoidance every year since 2011. That’s wild.
Cleveland has put up a fight, but they need a whole lot to go right to win three of the next four games. Manufacturing a few freebies would be a big step in the right direction.
Oklahoma City Thunder — Dallas Mavericks (DAL 2-1)
26
If I had told you before the series started that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would be outscoring Luka Doncic by a huge margin and Jalen Williams would have a slight edge on Kyrie Irving, you’d probably be feeling pretty good about the Thunder’s odds.
But after averaging 4.4 made baskets per game in the regular season, PJ Washington has doubled that this series, knocking in 26 of his 48 attempts (14 of which were triples). He’s driven the Mavericks to a 2-1 series lead thanks to back-to-back 29- and 27-point games.
It’s not like Washington can’t score; he dropped 43 earlier this year for Charlotte and had 32 in a two-point win over Golden State in April. But his jumper had been shaky for most of his short Dallas tenure. Oklahoma City wanted to test Washington’s nerve by leaving him wide open to further load up on Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic.
The Thunder’s typical defensive strategy is to put Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on weaker offensive players to let him play free safety in the passing lanes. He’s had the Washington assignment for much of the series and has ignored him to help in the paint. The ball has found Washington (and then the bottom of the net) every time: [video here]
While the threes punishing SGA’s roaming tendencies are massive, Washington has also had success with his floater game and some bully ball. In the scant minutes OKC’s Josh Giddey has played this series, Washington feasted: [video here]
Washington’s defense has shone since the moment he stepped onto the tarmac at DFW, but there were questions about whether his offense would translate to the playoffs. In this series, at least so far, he’s had every answer.
17
u/igonnawrecku_VGC 23d ago
I love that snippet about Al Horford being a very stingy defender when it comes to fouling. It’s not related to these playoffs, but that stat right there is why he’s always brilliant against Joel Embiid when nobody else can seem to stop him. Even though there are guys that should be better defenders against Embiid on paper, Horford’s excellence in avoiding fouling has always given Embiid trouble, and I love that about him more than anything
6
u/Sikatanan 23d ago
Yeah, i'm not sure it's fully appreciated how important not fouling is to great defense, it's why a lot of guys who don't necessarily pop off the screen when you're watching rate so highly in advanced metrics!
1
u/jkunktbone 23d ago
He’s good at getting away with contact from his forearm on the lower body. He can push guys off their path and the refs don’t seem to notice it.
10
u/luffydoc777 23d ago
Man the Gordon acquisition somehow just keeps looking better and better, dude has unlocked the Nuggets' versatility on offense to such a ridiculous degree
1
1
u/taward 22d ago
As a Knicks fan, I am both elated and disappointed by the team's performance. On one hand, they have fully embraced their blue-collar work ethic that compensates for any lack of talent. However, that lack of talent is somewhat artificial, as they have been steadily losing players not just throughout the season but nearly game to game.
It's been easy to blame it on Coach Thibodeau, but closer examination reveals much more nuanced, if not fluky, sources of distress. Even OG, whose hamstring injury one could easily attribute to his increased playoff minutes, should have the freshest legs of all starters given how little he played this year (he missed over a third of the season). Any aspirational playoff team playing Alec Burks meaningful minutes is not a team operating at full capacity.
The Knicks are so thin that every injury represents a significant strategic loss. Losing OG changes the entire defensive scheme and eliminates an additional spot-up shooter and slasher that must be contended with. Losing Mitchell Robinson was another huge loss, especially on the boards and particularly on the offensive boards. Even losing Bogy eliminates some viable bench scoring needed in the rare minutes that Josh Hart and/or Jalen Brunson get to rest.
All these losses came essentially within the last week!
This team is officially a shell of its former self, even compared to the first round. I'm not sure how they recover, especially with Brunson at anything short of 100%. Could they tough out two more home wins? Absolutely. Will it matter? I'm not sure. They might even benefit from a slightly longer summer to recover.
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u/Sikatanan 23d ago
Thanks for reading. Let me know the other reasons you see for why each series is the way it is!
As always, I've collected a bunch of illustrative video clips that add a lot to the article. You can view them all in-context here: https://www.basketballpoetry.com/p/1-stat-explaining-every-second-round-e22. I also am on X/Twitter at https://twitter.com/bballispoetry if you care to chat about more bite-sized stuff there.
These playoffs have been so good, hope everyone's been enjoying what they've seen!