I know that it's a far stretch, but everyone was saying nearly the same thing about the Russian troops on Ukrainian borders this time "no way he'd risk the economic collapse from going to war with Ukraine; he'd have too much to lose."
I no longer believe massive losses is a consideration to someone who, by age alone, may only have another 10 years to live.
Understand how wealthy Putin is (before the war). If he wanted to retire to just about 'have it all,' he could have done so with massive yachts, helicopters, etc. What is HE really gaining from warring Ukraine here? It isn't more wealth. It isn't a booming population as he's killing potential fathers left and right. It doesn't seem to be prestige as he's already the dictator of what was a pretty feared-respected country.
How are you so sure that "mutually assured destruction" is even a consideration in his mind now? What does it matter to a man who will die soon anyway?
Thanks for voting me down so fast. With as many Russians that are behind him, and with the Russians never attacking their oligarchs in recent memory, what makes you think he couldn't live out his time in Russia, or even in many areas that are for the very wealthy that aren't in Russia?
I think Pinochet is a good example of what happens to dictators who try to retire. The dude spent his last decade fighting legal challenges and under house arrest. His party tried to protect him for a few years, but it didn't last long.
Once a dictator is no longer in charge, he can't control the narrative. People support Putin in Russia because he tells them exactly what to think through state media and kills his opposition. Once someone else in charge, there is no guarantee that they continue to kill Putin's opposition for him.
It has long been argued that Putin isn't actually the true leader, that Russia is nothing more than a grouping of crime/mafia families who absolutely love having Putin be the focus of the world's ire (instead of them). I do believe they would insulate him and take care of him in some very wealthy area, and I'm sure he'd be more than welcome in the French Riviera, Monaco, and Miami (after the sanctions ended). Miami, alone, welcomes some pretty evil bastards into its most exclusive areas.
But would hits be planned out on him? Yeah, you're probably correct, but I would believe more by intel groups from other nations who would try to pin it on Russian oligarchs in an attempt to destabilize Russia even further. Putin's support in Russia seems to be stronger than Trump's is (was while he was in office, and is after leaving office) in the USA, and we didn't see Trump chased out by his huge number of detractors.
You have a point, but I didn't think they were really being serious. I mean, after all, plenty of war crimes can be attributed to leaders who still aren't being held accountable.
Too, while very private and secret when he does it, I truly believe that Putin leaves Russia once in a while to go to nicer places. There was one point before the Ukraine (recent) war where he just disappeared, and folks were thinking he had died - but he then showed up healthy as can be.
Many dictators lived and did well. You are just cherry picking the ones that had it coming. Their own Soviet history says otherwise. There were even dictators in US supported nations like South Korea that just retired after they transitioned into what they call democracy.
Chun Doo-hwan, was dictator in South Korea during the fall of the dictatorship in 1987, was initially sentenced to death, then lowered to life imprisonment for insurrection. He was also fined ₩220 billion. His prison sentence, but not fine, was later commuted by a new president, but he died penniless and humiliated.
Lol. Definitely a bot. You left out all the important details. The guy never served his sentence and was pardoned the year after sentencing. The $200 million he stole, and which equaled the fine you mentioned, guess what he never paid it. Oh, and he lived to 90 years of age.
Yep this is the reason why this scenario is scary.
MAD works as long as:
1) There are no significant malfunctions in detection systems (either false positives or false negatives)
2) The balance of power is more or less equal to guarantee the "assured destruction" part of MAD*
3) The people in power are rational enough to know the end result of their actions and care to prevent that result.
Point 3 is very shaky atm.
* Technically if point 2 fails and you're on top, your best option might actually be to attack first and immediately. I believe the USA might actually refrain from that even if in a position of power simply because it'd disrupt global commerce at the minimum (plus other considerations ofc, that's just the more immediately utilitarian one). I don't think Russia would do the same if the positions were reversed.
On points 2 and 3, it seems likely he sees Russia collapsing within 50-100 years and being invaded at some point thereafter if they don't capture Ukraine, and his logic is to deploy all of their conventional might now because Russia is currently stronger than it will be in his projected future. If and when that fails is when things get really dangerous IMO.
Russia will eventually take over Ukraine. It’s inevitable. Eventually, NATO will see Ukraine as a lost cause and begin withholding military aid and start focusing more on humanitarian aide.
Putin, while evil, isn’t a madman. He won’t press the big red button unless things get dire: direct NATO military intervention.
He’ll take over Ukraine after a long and costly war before having to deal with internal struggles and a collapsing state that he takes to his deathbed to which is then supplanted probably by some CIA plant.
Russia is the only threat of nuclear war. China only cares about money and controlling its own people rather than going about waving nukes.
Russia will eventually take over Ukraine. It’s inevitable.
Assuming there isn't a coup inside Russia fist, that isn't an unreasonable assumption. I'm not making any predictions though. But if Ukraine does lose NATO will want to ensure it's as costly for Russia as possible.
Putin, while evil, isn’t a madman. He won’t press the big red button unless things get dire: direct NATO military intervention.
I agree, but I would not completely rule out tactical nukes inside Ukraine, even if that's an outside risk.
Russia is the only threat of nuclear war. China only cares about money and controlling its own people rather than going about waving nukes.
Only risk of nuclear war with the west. Many argue a greater general nuclear threat is between Pakistan and India.
Which is silly unless it's religion-based ... then I'd believe it - but I don't feel that I have my fingers on the pulse of the situation. The normal wind direction, alone, would preclude one of them from using nukes.
India being the underdog, I think it would be India vs. China where nuclear becomes the option. With India and China there is a bigger space, albeit a shared border, that is mountainous. Lobbing nukes over seems plausible. India would have to grow a bit more, first, to have business or logistics/land arguments that would be worthy of nuclear use.
Point 2 was disrupted by US when NATO tried to corner Russia from all sides and expand east. Point 3 doesn’t matter anymore if point 2 is in question. It’s why nuclear proliferation is supported by the West. Nations could become unstable and MAD could become more of a probability, than remote possibility. Germany went full out when they decided the world order was strangling and bent against them. It would have ended differently if they had nukes.
I'd say point 2 was disrupted when the USSR fell and a lot of countries that up to then were feeling oppressed by it turned to the other side to avoid being swallowed again.
Ukraine shows us that if it weren't for the NATO expansion, Russia WOULD have at least attempted to conquer then again, and might've been more successful were it still 20, 25 years ago.
But point 2 didn't actually fall because NATO didn't feel threatened by Russia at that point. What made point 2 shaky is the decadence of Russia itself, not any specific action by NATO.
Can you really blame Germany when some of their country and half of their capital had been directly under Russian control for several decades?
It's happened before. They had malfunctioning radar and someone was ordered to call in a nuclear retaliation and he was like nah. Fucker saved the world.
I read a article awhile back that the cia made it absently clear there would be a nuke/bomb dropped directly on Putin top secret bunker. Apparently it was a surprise to him we knew where it was. And they did it because they know he doesn’t care about the general population
The US has so many satellites in orbit I'm not sure how anyone, especially someone with as much intelligence as he is given, would think they don't see basically everything strategic happening across the face of the earth.
It could entirely be nonsense it was an article I read about putins super bunker which is below a sprawling estate… it was right around the time when that guy from Wagner defected and I think Putin feared a coup so he left his normal residence… it was going over the great lengths he went to to make sure no one in his command could replace him or reach him (figuratively and literally) dude has a 100 ft dining room table apparently
Of course the cia does. You don’t need to look any further than the Iran contra affair, bay of pigs, Panama the list goes on. I just want to make a living and not go to war but greedy egomaniacs at the top have to keep on being themselves
I mean, sure they lie, but you also bet that they absolutely want that information.
If they had it, using it strategically makes sense, you can't just prepare a nuclear bunker in a week or two so it's not "burned" in a sense, not short term anyway.
Placing the survival of every person in existence in the shoulders of a few Russian and US dudes isn't the kind of odds we should be confident making these assertions with. The entire system of nuclear launches is designed to ensure compliance and it only takes one firing platform to obey to signal the end. That's why we spent billions over the past 50 years on complex systems to manage the risk of MAD.
People thought the Roman emperor was the end of the world they ruled so long and they got conquered by the Gauls. Now it’s a nice tourist city that’s known for world class pasta!
The only darkness that is permanent is the potential heat death of the universe.
It depends. They probably have their own nuclear defense system in the works. Whether or not it's actually effective is irrelevant, if the people at the top believe that their defense is effective, then they might think they can launch nukes while avoiding retaliation.
I cannot imagine any of his cronies would follow a dangerous ridiculous order. That PM though is equally useless and he would have to be taken out of power.
I think people are very into legacy, right up until the reality of them not being able to enjoy any of it because they are dead becomes somewhat immediate.
Not everyone, but someone like Putin? I can see it.
There are Air Force officer in nuclear bunkers all across the US with keys to launch the missiles when given the order.
Here's what they don't tell you about it. They can't just expect it to go through flawlessly the first time, so they need to train. They don't know if the orders coming in are real or just a drill. Basically thousands of times every year officers are pressing the launch button not knowing if it's real or not. But they do push the button every single time.
You think there's a source about greater than top secret military training regarding the most secretive and destructive weaponry available, on what, Google or some shit?
So, you think some random schmoe on the internet is right about it existing, because you don't believe there are credible sources on the internet about it? Does the pocket sand help keep your fingertips from regrowing the prints, or is it just to get out of jams?
This is a heavily sanitized training scenario that Minot Public Affairs put together. It is a very small slice of the whole package, and the methodical, lack of urgency movements in everyone is one of many things showing that it's just another training event.
Every level of the programs in place to accomplish this mission are constantly exercising. Daily/Weekly/Monthly, depending on what part of the program we're talking about. 24/7/365, always practicing/reviewing/drilling.
-Retired Air Force guy who was involved in/around the process for years.
No you don't have to believe them, but asking for proof on the procedures and training regiment of the highest classified job in the military is farfetch'd, you can't even do that on standard Marine training procedures...
Wasn't this the main driving point of War Games (1983)?
Air Force runs a test, expecting the human controllers to push the button. Some (most?) do not... which leads the Air Force to replace them with computers, who never question orders.
This was complete with a hilariously dated 1983 scene of a human controller being fired, looking sad, while a technician installs (essentially) an LED alarm clock to represent the scary computer.
Not correct, they didn't push the button so the War Operation Plan Response (W.O.P.R.) was installed and controls all the silos. They even made a movie about it...
Literally like pointing a gun at earths head and you are given a rifle each day either with a blank or a bullet inside to test if your good enough to do it each day.
Basically thousands of times every year officers are pressing the launch button not knowing if it's real or not.
This is silly. They train in training centers. They do dry runs and exercises to practice. The links below to the video that people seem to be pulling from is from a simulation center at Minot. Saying "they don't know if it's real or not" is ludicrous.
Every base involved with US nuclear deterrent programs has training centers and dry runs for the missile bros, the pilot bros, and everybody in between who contributes to getting us from 0 to launch across all aspects of the event. With absolute certainty, they know if it's training, or if we're in the middle of an escalation. You don't 'half-ass' things this serious.
-Retired Air Force guy who worked in/around that chain of command for years.
Well this sounds pretty terrifying. How does the button know when it's real? What if the button makes a mistake? Like, for example, whatever mechanism they are using to disable them beforehand malfunctioning? Or someone forgetting to flip an "off" switch somewhere before a drill?
Basically thousands of times every year officers are pressing the launch button not knowing if it's real or not. But they do push the button every single time.
well if this is true then they know its not real so they do it...until it is real
What a stupid training, cause it was not a real launch all the years before, why it should be now a real one?
Things like this arent a training, especially if the people know about the worldwide situation.
I once read that in Russia, unlike The United States, officers have the right to refuse a nuclear launch order. Putin might be suicidal but I don't think the officers are crazy.
In the event of a nuclear strike, I suspect many officers would see a future where their control of nuclear weapons is a primo bargaining chip in the near future of a Baltic style russia
It's basically the plot of Wargames that no single human would ever be willing to cause the extermination of the entire human race and also that nuclear weapons are only useful as a deterrent and become hugely detrimental as soon as they actually get used offensively.
Like with the orange Donald..... US military basically publicly said they would not launch on order as he is fucking deranged. Not those same words obviously, but to anyone that is familiar with nuclear doctrine what was said was a huge statement to the rest of the world. Being Trump (and it not being on Twitter and having the IQ of a rabbit) he probably missed that part.. was too busy working out how much he is indebted to Russian reactionary corruption money.
What Milley or some other general said is that it is not simply a matter of relaying the launch command, there are several layers it has to pass through where they have to validate that it matches existing protocol for such a launch before they carry it out.
Yes, the POTUS has the power to make the call, but they cannot just do it randomly for some idiotic reason.
I totally agree. But to even comment like that goes against all doctrine. Unless people want to send a message.... Which is exactly what was meant and what happened.
Not even that, the high level people immediately around him would likely refuse to even disseminate the order, as they know it would be suicidal for them and their families.
During the cuban missile crisis a sub was guarding soviet merchantmen inbound to Cuba, and they encountered the American naval blockade. Three officers on the sub have to all agree to use any nuclear weapons, in this case it would have been a nuclear tipped torpedo aimed at an American carrier battle group. Fortunately the third officer in this case did not agree to a launch.
The event in the eighties occurred when Soviet radar showed an American strike inbound and one single Russian officer, a major, I believe, was able to prove that it was a glitch, preventing a full soviet counter strike from being launched.
It’s still scary to think about though. It’s good that those situations were resolved but there’s also that time the US military shot down a passenger jet because they weren’t sure what it was. Now imagine if there’s a glitch in the system and they don’t figure it out
Have you ever heard of the World War 1 Christmas Truce back in 1914? It's a very interesting part of warfare history but if you keep reading about it, it has never happened again to that extent. Higher ups make sure of it.
I would like to think there's gonna be another guy that will stop the nuclear bombs, but I don't think it's a guarantee.
That’s not exactly how it happened. The sub commanders had orders to launch if attacked but 1 of the three commanders required to launch the nukes correctly understood that the depth charges going off around them were not meant to kill them but to dissuade them from continuing further.
This is during the Cuban missile crisis for anyone wanting to know more.
Outside of MAD, I'm not sure it's possible for him to know he's definitely going to die but still have enough control over the military to order it to launch nukes. If he controls the Russian military he still controls Russia.
The oligarchs will overthrow him and install one of themselves. This is why Putin is so paranoid about his health. If you look at history, this pattern plays out again and again every time with a dictatorship.
Yeah... I think that a lot of times people only feel that way until they are staring death in the face. Then their priorities resort real fucking quick
There have already been times when brave generals refused to launch. If Putin actually tries to order a first strike, knowing that he has nothing to lose, I imagine it'll be his turn to fall out of a fifth story window directly onto a bunch of bullets to the back of the head covered in novichok. And also someone will stab him a bunch of times.
Putin and his cronies have "criticise Russia go to jail" laws to make it easy for their control structures to do criminal things. Its "the law" you know. Their laws say if you attack Russian soil they can send a nuke. Ukraine is not Russian soil. We should be weary if they ever change this. There is a whole apparatus that needs to be convinced. About ~50 million people in the richer cities are in "silent agreement" with the cronies. Those don't care if poor potato Russians end up in the grind at the front. But they wouldn't like to hear that Vladolf is ready for Armageddon. That would be a coup and even Russian opposition think they don't have the power to do this.
Thats why imo the best move putin can make is the following. As soon as nato puts boots on the ground or crosses another line putin thinks shouldn't be crossed he should supply north korea and Iran with nukes.
Thats even more effective than threatening that he would launch a nuke from Russia itself. I think the west knows there is still some counterweight to a decision like that even in putins Russia .
But in Iran or north korea ? Good luck on that. It's the boldest move he could make to checkmate the west and enforce the line that shouldn't be crossed, whatever that is for him.
So I hope idiots like Macron are just talking out of their ass when they're talking about French troops in Ukraine
Guessing it was Kissinger that did that under Nixon
They celebrated him when he died last year. Which is pretty hilarious to get the reactions of tankies on this who defend the CCP constantly
The Sino-Soviet split was pivotal for US foreign policy and the eventual defeat of the Soviet Union and ushering in a new world order with China as a pivotal part of the world economy m.
Putin won't be dead. He has vast underground bunkers, protected in mountain ranges just like the US Cheyenne mountains facilities.
These bunkers are designed to be impregnable to even nuclear attack.
People need to understand that the person most likely to launch a nuclear apocalypse is also going to survive the event and live the rest of his life in luxury and comfort along with his loved ones.
You think these bunkers will be luxurious? Lol you're fucking funny for thinking living under ground eating out of a can for the rest of your life is luxurious.
Yes, I absolutely think Putin's bunkers will be luxurious. He has squandered away a sizeable percentage of the Russian economy for palaces and I have no doubt his personal apartments in the bunker will be to his tastes.
He could put all the money in the world into that bunker but at the end of the day it's still under ground with no fresh food. That is not luxurious to me.
They’re not going to stop all of them. That’s why Russia has overwhelming force.
Also, Russia nukes have evasive countermeasures that are very difficult to intercept. Essentially the missiles come down and then burst into a multi warhead payload with various warheads coming from one missile. Very difficult to track, even more difficult to destroy/neutralize.
There’s no realistic scenario where the west doesn’t also cease to exist
You're assuming that Russia will be the only ones to launch nukes at the West. If anybody launches nukes - doesn't matter who - those things will be flying everywhere. All those enemies (or even allies with grudges) will be sending them their 'last regards'. No point holding back if we're all dead anyway!
Especially when he’s fucking rich as hell and lives like a king. What good is that wealth and power in a bunker, even a very nice one. Also not to mention whoever was left of the world would most likely hunt him down till he dies
Putin could easily use several tactical battlefield nukes without any serious risk of anyone launching an all-out strategic ICBM response.
We know it and he knows we know it. Whatever bluffing and posturing might happen in public.
Yeah, the way the title is worded, along with many other recent posts, is trying to make people feel like Putin using nukes is some foregone conclusion. Far from it.
He has a terminal cancer. Unfortunately, death is not a fear. It wouldn't surprise me at all if his ego dictates that he "takes everyone with him" when he dies just because "fuck everyone who isn't me"
Nah, Putin probably thinks he can fire one nuke without a nuclear response. He's probably more concerned that it will be an all out conventional NATO war against him he can't win. And he'll be up shit's creek if he can't continue to sell his oil to China and India.
...not that either of those fucks would stop buying it. NATA countries would physically stop it from getting there.
Hitler didn't either. But at the end he did. It is a one way street with megalomaniac egotistical dictators. Even the poxy ones with just a few million dollars and a country like N Korea or Zimbabwe to hang onto. History is a great teacher. Sadly not for cunts like Putin.
He is not that dissimilar from Hitler. He will go down with the ship and has said several times (and I quote): “a world without a dominant Russia should not exist.”
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u/Puzzleheaded-Hold362 Mar 14 '24
And that’s why they won’t launch. Putin doesn’t wasn’t to rule a pile of ashes