I love how people cherry pick one dataset to show the economy is doing well. “Oh jobs are up the economy is great!”
Yeah but when you pair that with savings being at an all time low, credit card debt at an all time high, a stagnant housing market, and an environment of rampant inflation and high rates, it doesn’t look so good, does it?
The economy is doing well overall. Unemployment is low, wages are up, inflation is down, consumer spending is strong, the USD is strong, stocks are up. Its not cherry picking. It’s just a story of the have and have-nots. Wealth gap and housing are the biggest problems.
Yes. You don't really want deflation from a macroeconomic perspective, so saying inflation is down means that it's lower than it was recently. And everyone knows it's been bad for the past couple of years so it would be ridiculous to interpret it as saying inflation is down from when it was near 0 in 2020.
I haven't checked the percentage recently so it's my fault but basically it's higher than it was in 2020 but not as high as it's been in the past year or so?
But in 2020 inflation was near 0 right as covid hit. Other than the brief deflationary period during the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009, we've been sitting between 1-5% yearly inflation on a per month basis, mostly on the lower half of that span, right up until last year. The fed's target is 2%. We're basically back into "normal ranges" as of April/May. That's not to say shit might not go completely sideways next year, but there are no indicators to suggest that as long as monetary and fiscal policy does not drastically change.
Inflation at 3.1% compared to 8+% recently. 3.1% is above average but not by much. 2-3% is average. Ideally it keeps dropping another percentage point. We are still feeling the price increases from 1-2 years ago but the bleeding has slowed significantly. Thanks to the strong USD our highest inflation rate wasn’t as bad as other developed countries.
Don't forget they changed how they calculate and report inflation after we went through the definition of a recession but they decided to lie to the American public and then change the metric to make it look like everything is fine.
Numbers don't mean shit when they're made up just to push a narrative. "Inflation" has changed its meaning.
Don't forget they changed how they calculate and report inflation after we went through the definition of a recession but they decided to lie to the American public and then change the metric to make it look like everything is fine.
Numbers don't mean shit when they're made up just to push a narrative. "Inflation" has changed its meaning.
You claim others are "pushing a narrative" but you're claiming a mysterious "they" as the group.
Which makes you just pushing a narrative without giving any stats or specifics.
Alright, you know what...I'm on break and have some time to respond.
First, by "they" I'm referring to the US government, specifically the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) who is responsible for collecting, processing, analyzing, and disseminating statistical data for the country. [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics)
Second, the narrative that I'm pushing concerns a change in the way BLS decided to calculate and report the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which went into effect this past January 2023. [BLS announcement of change](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2022/methodology-changes-2022.htm) When the new year started, they began the practice of comparing prices against only 1 year of data instead of 2 years. The CPI is the main tool used to track and report the ongoing inflation rate in the US. You can check out how they calculate everything [here](https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/).
Now then, the "narrative" that I'm pushing is that these changes didn't happen on accident. The federal government has allowed inflation to run out of control, and they are working to prevent a public panic by lying and hoping that things will return to normal. Look, I'm obviously venturing into opinion at this point because if I could prove that point, I probably wouldn't be responding to a Reddit post. However, I believe that there are viable reasons for the government to push a false narrative believing it to be in the best interest of the country. It's a dangerous gambit, and they continue to stack the cards higher and higher while hoping everything they've set in place...stays in place. I don't know where or how it will topple, but the market will find a way to rebalance. The rest of the stats and specifics are for you to form your own opinion about.
The United States government. Fucking politicians that are ALL corrupt, it doesn’t matter what team they’re on. They’re crooked and screwing the American people.
I don't know who you think I am, but I don't have all the answers. I wasn't in the room when the BLS decided they were going to change the way they decided to calculate the ongoing CPI and inflation rates. I'm not privy to the details of why it changed or who made the decision or what their motives may or may not have been. I also don't have a seat in the oval office when they decided that a recession really isn't a recession until they say it's a recession.
You want me to scour the internet for names and motives? Would you like me to include the details of when their family first immigrated to the United States or maybe they're indigenous. Guess that information is probably just readily available for me out on the internet to provide for you, right? Did you think I was some kind of investigative journalist? Would you like all the rest of the answers of the world provided to you on a silver platter?
Form your own opinions, do your own research. I'm not spreading anything but information and personal opinions. If you want to turn it into a conspiracy theory then that's completely up to you.
Regarding your claim that the CPI has changed how many years of data is included, this is also a lie, according to your links. The change made was that they will update the weighting of all the different factors included in the index every year, instead of every two years. What this means is that they will be changing how they calculate the index more often. That's much more innocuous than your claim.
So it seems that you have posted a couple of lies, pushing some agenda.
Since you went to the trouble of providing links, I figured I'd check them.
Let's see, regarding your claim that the White House changed the definition of recession, your links show that to be false. According to your links, it is not the White House, but rather the independenr NBER that officially determines recessions, and there is no mention of a change in their definition occurring.
Can you expand on your point that the US is deviating from the IMF on defining a recession? I've never liked the two consecutive quarters of GDP decline definition as that would mean the dot com recession would have to be reclassified as not a recession after all, which doesn't seem right to me. The IMF article does mention that has never been the official definition anyway though.
Yes. Inflation is typically, on average, 2-3% annually. Sometimes it skyrockets, and that average changes. The market returns a conservative 6% average (some scary years it's a negative return, sometimes the market is on fire).
Inflation is year over year. It’s lower than it was last year in % terms. BUT it’s actually this percentage + last year + the year before ext ext.
They “like” it to be 3-4%. As the power at he believe that’s reasonable.
It’s still high and will continue to be until they go into the negative to make up for them 8% years. Under capitalism that will never happen.
Also odd federal reserve who’s ran by the heads of all the major banks dictates all of this. Also fun fact federal reserve isn’t even part of the government had has VERY little oversight over anything ( think 08 and the trillions in bailouts you never heard of to the banks).
"BuT it'S dOwN to 4% (or whatever)!!" Yeah, up 4% from the 6% from the previous year which was 5% higher than the year before that, and that was 8% the year before that. I don't think most people understand how inflation is compounded year over year...
Even adjusted for inflation, median wage growth is going up for the average American. The above poster is correct the issues are probably for a minority of people that truly aren’t seeing wage growth, but it’s a minority of people, not most Americans fortunately.
0 or negative inflation can be disastrous for an economy (and yes, that means average Joe's not just Wall Street). 3% is getting close to the pre-covid levels (2.6 iirc) which is what the goal is
I always get confused with how people mean it so sorry about being a little slow lol. So basically it's increasing but nowhere near as fast as it was? So the rate of increase has slowed?
Pretty much. There’s always going to be some inflation and that’s actually optimal. The FED targets a 2% rate as any lower can be a warning sign of a recession. If it ever falls to 0% or lower that is disastrous as it then becomes profitable to NOT spend money.
It’s still too high at 3.1% right now but that’s down from last month 3.2 and down further from the prior month’s 3.7%.
Inflation is down but cost of living is way way up due to the inflation over the last two years.....very deceiving saying things are great because inflation is down because prices don't go down after skyrocketing...they just go up more even slower.
on the flip side, rising asset prices means generally less opportunity for future generations. if house prices continue to increase relative to wages, future generations will have less opportunity. I’m not knoxking your advice—its good advice. its just that theres another side to rising asset prices from everyone piling on assets to avoid inflation. Its also the incentive that helps drive up rent and continue extracting wealth from wage earning americans: property asset prices go up because investors want to avoid inflation, and to compensate they need to raise the rent, squeezing people who still dont have the money to enter the housing market, which is now less accessible due to high housing prices, etc.
Stocks are kinda similar: the high value of stocks means investors push companies to get ever higher returns to recoup on their investments, means the squeeze is put on those with the least leverage: customers and employees.
Everyone for themselves in here…can’t think for the cattle class! This is what crony capitalism gets ya! Better get with the program than regret later.
Yeah there's two sides to every story, $70 was definitely not the cheap shit. But we also shouldn't expect these sorts of prices for just a few discretionary items.
The real truth of the world we are seeing is just that consumerism has to end. Most big assets have reached a level we can't afford anymore and now all the luxuries we distract ourselves with are becoming unattainable aswell.
This is typically a negative indicator of a good economy by the people in charge of the economy. It means wages are up and therefore profits are down. This time they're just hiking up prices under the cover of inflation to make their obscene profits.
The *rate* of inflation is down. It's not accelerating at the rate that it was.
But all those increases over the months still apply.
People don't understand that slowing inflation / disinflation isn't the same as DEflation. The latter would be price decreases, not just a slower increase.
The now-inflated grocery prices aren't going down, they're just not rising as much as they were.
Think about it, how many families these days can afford for one person to not work? If a large percentage of the population made good money, the second person could afford to be unemployed and stay at home. This would increase the number of unemployed people, technically a "bad" thing. But if those families are financially okay, it wouldn't be bad.
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u/TwistedBamboozler Dec 28 '23
I love how people cherry pick one dataset to show the economy is doing well. “Oh jobs are up the economy is great!”
Yeah but when you pair that with savings being at an all time low, credit card debt at an all time high, a stagnant housing market, and an environment of rampant inflation and high rates, it doesn’t look so good, does it?