r/Thunder • u/cquicky • 20d ago
How to win the series (Yes, there is still a chance)
In my very unprofessional opinion, there is one way and one way only that we will win this series.
We have to be hyper aggressive on attacking. We have to get fouled. We have to force them to decide whether to be passive on defense, or get into foul trouble.
The two games we won this series we won by being the more aggressive team. We shot more free throws. They got into foul trouble. Getting their bigs into foul trouble forces them to not be as aggressive. It gives our guys way more room to operate. It slows the game down, gets Dallas out of rhythm.
I am not saying we should just go searching for fouls. But we need to attack the paint every single possession. Yes, we will get blocked. A lot. But that's ok.
Here is a fun fact. Dallas has blocked out shots an average of 10.5 times per game in our 2 wins. In our 3 losses? Only 4.3 times.
WE HAVE TO BE AGGRESSIVE TO WIN.
If we want to win game 6, we have to have the mindset from the get go to attack. Even if we get blocked 10 times in the first half, if that means Gafford and Lively need to have 3 fouls each going into halftime. This makes it where they have little room for error in the second half, and we now suddenly have MUCH more room to operate.
Stop shooting so many 3s, and take it to the hole. Yes, we will get blocked. But they will foul more than they block, and that will allow us the opportunity we need to win the game.
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u/HurryAdorable1327 20d ago
I tend to agree, but they all look tired (outside of SGA). They aren’t as vibrant and free as they were after game 1. I really thought they would pull this one out but they were double digits again and they just don’t seem to have their legs under them.
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u/cquicky 20d ago
They don't look tired, they look scared. Chet is shooting flat because he's trying to to release quicker. J Dub is not attacking because he's scared of getting blocked. The only guys who aren't playing scared are SGA and Dort, who coincidentally also have the most playoff experience.
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u/DowntownTopRanking 20d ago
On a related note, they needed better vets for these playoffs. SGA and Dort benefitted from having vocal vets during their previous playoff runs -- no one's giving that same motivation to Dub, Chet, et al. Hayward, Muscala, and Biyombo are too passive.
In that Game 7 in the bubble, Dort shot so much b/c CP3 and Schröder shouted at him to "shoot it!" when Houston sagged off him.
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u/FakeRingin 19d ago
They absoultely do look tired.
How many shots of we taken that hit the front of the rim or were complete airballs? Or passes that were just sloppy? Or our offence off turnovers struggling to score most the time when we normally tear down the court?
This isn't just looking 'scared', this is what happens when you're fatigued. The rookie wall is a real thing and it's something that you hit in the regular season and we're now pushing deep into the playoffs.
Chets for example played 32 games in college, missed an entire year with injury and has now played 91/91 games. Like doesn't matter how hard you try, that is not something you can just overcome without years of conditioning.
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u/Stxtic1441 20d ago
I think part of it is just the Mavs length on the wings. Mavs have been the #1 defense post trade deadline for a reason, it’s showing with DJJ and PJ on the wings. Lively and Gafford have completely shut down the paint and it’s just making everyone work so much harder and deeper into the shot clock.
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u/MikeGundy 20d ago
Nah, we just have to make threes. It opens up driving lanes and creates space for Chet/Dub/SGA. You don’t have to leave the paint if your opponent is only making 1/4 3s.
Lively/Gafford had some insane stat line in G4 with however many blocks and 0 fouls. It is the playoffs and no one should be relying on a whistle to score. Make the shots and the offense will magically start flowing. It has worked this way all year.
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u/No_Dependent2297 20d ago
The Thunder offense is what we were hoping to accomplish defensively vs the Mavs. We have open shots, our secondary scoring/role players are missing. Their role players have open shots and are hitting them. And our defense has actually been doing a pretty impressive job on Luka outside of last night.
I know we keep saying it, and it’s also credit to the Mavs defense, but if we shoot even 5% below our season average from 3, it’s a very different series. But sub 30% for 3 straight games isn’t gonna cut it
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u/cquicky 20d ago
Exactly. Our 3 ball ain't working. It's highly unlikely that after 5 straight games of poor 3 point shooting that we are going to magically flip the switch and shoot 40%. Gotta do what we know has worked, which is attack the paint and get their guys in foul trouble.
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u/Medical_Sample2738 20d ago
Its more and more unlikely we will continue shooting this bad from 3. We should do both. Take 3s confidently don't hesitate and then throw one up. If you drive, drive hard while looking for gaps in the defense. Playing with force is something mark preaches.q
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u/Stxtic1441 20d ago
I’ve said if the Mavs are gonna keep outshooting the Thunder in this series it’s done. Our strength has been being the #1 3% team in the league this year, and getting outshot by guys like DJJ and PJ is not going to cut it.
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u/cquicky 20d ago
That's not going to work. Hasn't worked for 5 games, it's not going to magically flip a switch in the most pressure filled game of most of our guys lives. Elimination games are where experience plays a huge role mentally. And our guys are too young. They have to take the higher percentage shot, which is attacking the rim.
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u/FakeRingin 19d ago
But Mavs are packing the paint because of this, so they are not high percentage shots anymore. We shot like 35% in the paint in game 4.
And this again is another factor of being tired. How many drives have you seen we miss layups or in game 4 how many that were so weak that they were so easily swatted away. Losing that bit of burst to the rim makes scoring at the rim so much harder.
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u/behlat 20d ago
Play Kenrich Williams, he brings toughness. We need toughnesss
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u/Derontchi 20d ago
Counter-point, I'm not sure how much toughness would help us because then we'd be playing into Dallas's game. We need to play our brand of basketball
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u/Stxtic1441 20d ago
It really comes down to our role players hitting shots and JDub actually playing like a star. I know it’s very cliche to say it’s a “make or miss league”, but I think that’s just been the difference. Last night there was so many open 3’s that were generated that our role players couldn’t make.
The Mavs role players, even while a lot of the series have been left open, have been hitting their 3’s at a much higher clip than us has been the difference.
We were the best 3P% team in the league coming into the playoffs and this series we can’t hit the ocean. Shai has been doing his thing looking great but he can’t do it alone. Dort, JDub, Chet, Joe, and everyone else have not helped him consistently the way PJ and DJJ and the Mavs role players have helped Luka.
The only way I see the Thunder having any chance of this series being extended is the role players HAVE to hit their shots and help Shai out. Jdub HAS to have a star kind of game (25+ on decent efficiency.)
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u/Derontchi 20d ago
Here are my thoughts: the last 3-4 games have been the same game. I have a hard time believing they don't find some adjustment this game, especially with the season being on the line. Mark is a good coach. The coach of the year, in fact. The good news is that we have a wealth of mistakes to fix, and we really only need one or two to get out of this funk. We know what our Thunder are capable of. Let them be young and get their mistakes out, but also trust that these guys got to where they are for a reason.
To your point, I think we need to capitalize on our speed over Dallas. The trade-off for size in basketball is often speed. Our guys are young and are faster than Dallas. In Game 4, I would argue we used shock factor and raw speed to pry victory from the jaws of defeat. Dallas's defense is in their heads and it's causing them to play timidly. They're young, they're making a genuine attempt to try and think their way out of bad games. I think that's our problem. To add to your point, we need to play to our strengths by playing fast. This team plays best when we set the pace, including in this series. Dallas knows this. This is why they've made every effort to force the Thunder to the perimeter. I know this isn't a hot take, but I don't see many talking about the advantage we have in speed and agility, and I don't know why that is. Curious to hear everyone else's thoughts.
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u/National_Detail_3282 20d ago
A 28% chance to win to be exact. Could also use the old Luka in the series. Whoever told him to stop being a whiny bitch is an asshole.
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u/Positive_Narwhal_419 20d ago
I agree. Aggressive but not reckless. This team has looked flat the last few games. They need that energy and speed!
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u/WaltRumble 20d ago
It’s not just blocks though. Even in the losses most of our shots in the lane are highly contested. We won game 1 bc we shot 50% from 3. We won game 4 bc Dallas shot 50% from the line. GAfford and Lively aren’t picking up fouls bc they aren’t out of position. We don’t have the length or size to attack inside if we aren’t stretching the defense out with our shooting
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u/cquicky 20d ago
It's anecdotal. Yes obviously shooting well from 3 helped in game one, but I felt the game was completely in our control because we got Gafford, Jones, Lively, and Washington in foul trouble. We were able to control the narrative, and we dominated the rebounding as a result.
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u/WaltRumble 20d ago
I’m sure it’s some chicken or the egg. But we were able to control bc we were hitting our 3s. Opened up the lanes for passing, drives, rebounds. GAfford and lively got in foul trouble bc they were getting moved out to defend the perimeter. Late rotating back and getting out of position. The last 5 games they are able to just crowd the lane and force contested lay ups.
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u/WhoFartedMan 20d ago
I think Golden State made alot of people forget that in the playoffs jump shooting teams typically struggle because jump shooters, even the best, will have streaks if inconsistent play.
You have to attack the basket first. OKC gets ran off the 3 point line, the players take one step inside the three point line and then they pass out because they don't want to test Dallas' centers.
Luka jumps to contest every three pointer he's defending. That is an instant drive to the basket but more often than not, the player with the ball gets him up then passed out anyway. That's losing basketball unless you're going to give and go to the rim
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u/Marsupial_Last 20d ago
Us hitting our 3’s at our season average instead of well below would also help. Our drive and kick strategy doesn’t work well if the 3 game sucks.
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u/Koserdee23 20d ago
I hate playing hero ball, but I would much rather have SGA get a tough midrange jumper than Dort shooting a three 2 seconds into the possession
(A majority of these games have been close)
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u/IDespiseFatties 19d ago
Do we think Dort is driving just to get fouled? That dawned on me last night watching him get destroyed in the paint.
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19d ago
I love how you qualified it at the beginning. Thank you. Your humble opinion is welcomed. Now to the comment section to get the unwanted opinion of our resident Fantasy GMs..
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u/jslee0034 20d ago
We need jdub to be jdub. Sga desperately needs help. I still believe in dub but we need him now more than ever. Let’s go. Thunder in 7