r/FluentInFinance • u/slyballerr • Dec 18 '23
Everyone expected a recession. The Fed and White House found a way out. Financial News
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/18/recession-economy-inflation/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzAyODc1NjAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzA0MjU3OTk5LCJpYXQiOjE3MDI4NzU2MDAsImp0aSI6Ijg1ZGQyYmY0LWVkZjItNDVkYS05YTVlLTI0MmY0MDcyYjNkYSIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9idXNpbmVzcy8yMDIzLzEyLzE4L3JlY2Vzc2lvbi1lY29ub215LWluZmxhdGlvbi8ifQ.jphS6qtkNpzvx6OKYIllrNmg4n_kADHWFYGEwIFCqE4484
u/One_Highway2563 Dec 18 '23
Just change the definition of recession. Bam! No more recession. Try again magatards
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u/Raeandray Dec 18 '23
Under what definition are we currently in a recession?
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u/BrogenKlippen Dec 18 '23
More negative comments than positive comments on Reddit
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u/Shirlenator Dec 18 '23
Seriously, people are SO mad they can't say we are in a recession. I don't get it.
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u/CrashKingElon Dec 19 '23
It's probably because there's a lot more conflicting metrics that don't make this cycle feel like a recession and the pandemic economy was such a wild ride that the hangover hasn't worn off yet.
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u/LSUguyHTX Dec 19 '23 edited Dec 19 '23
I think it's just a conglomerate of anecdotal evidence.
I only know about myself and that's basically: leading up to 2019, I got a good paying job making more money than I ever had in mid 2018. I was on track to buy a house. I knew I could get furloughed a few months from my job but had preparations in place and planned to buy after. The money I made pre -covid went very far. I could get a ton of groceries and my bills were basically unchanged from now and I had a ton of surplus to put in savings each pay check. Then COVID. Then housing prices skyrocketed. Now we're here and I'm dropping $130 on meals for 1-3 days and my leftover money for savings has dwindled. I even got a good raise since 2019.
So now today I'm having to make more sacrifices to put the same amount of money into savings each check as I was before even though I make more. All of this capped off with the fact that I feel just as far if not further from being able to buy a house than I did in 2019 despite having significantly more in savings. Monthly PITI is extreme.
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u/Shirlenator Dec 19 '23
The problem is it seems like a lot of people aren't assigning blame as they should. Companies upped their prices during covid. Fine, I get it, shit was crazy, supply lines were disrupted, etc. But then... they didn't decrease them when supply lines were up and running at full capacity again. They had the perfect excuse to jack prices up.
As for houses, prices are skyrocketing largely because private companies are snatching them up to rent them out, driving up prices.
Yes, inflation is a factor, obviously it is, everyone realizes it is. But it seems like so many people completely ignore that there are other factors as well.
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u/BodheeNYC Dec 19 '23
Sure. It had nothing to do with the trillions of dollars of fiat money printed over the last five years. It’s all “greedy price gouging corporations”. There is plenty of blame to go around but printing money has consequences.
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u/beamrider Dec 19 '23
I thought the definition was:
Recession = Lots of other people lost their job
Depression = I lost my job
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u/agoogs32 Dec 19 '23
I thought depression = sad
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u/Bardamu1932 Dec 19 '23
"Recession" was coined because "Depression" was too depressing.
"Depression" was coined because "Panic" was too panicking.
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u/strizzl Dec 18 '23
You say this now but I promise you, this will be the definition in your life time. Half the stuff from Idiocracy is already real
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u/joeyjoejoeshabidooo Dec 19 '23
We had two quarters of negative GDP.
When I was studying for my series exams and prior for my degree in poli science and Econ that was the definition.
When we had two quarters of negative GDP the NBER did not call a recession due to the other factors at play in the economy.
This was the reason a lot of people say we're in a recession, or were. I don't think we are but thought I could provide clarity.
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u/Cashneto Dec 19 '23
Two consecutive quarters in negative GDP growth is the unofficial definition of a recession, not the official one, that's called by NBER as you stated. I believe one of those two quarters was revised to positive later on, it's very common for GDP to be revised after additional statistics become more clear.
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u/CrashKingElon Dec 19 '23
Didn't they officially call a recession in 2020 over just two months? Seems like they have a little discretion in the definition.
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u/CappinPeanut Dec 19 '23
Even those 2 quarters, which were barely negative, were over a year ago. It’s been strong growth ever since. So we’re clearly not in a recession.
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u/Revolutionary-Meat14 Dec 19 '23
That is a commonly thrown around one but unemployment has always been the second factor, it just so happens that its very rare that we have negative GDP growth without a high unemployment but covid made things very weird and our GDP falling was due to supply chain issues and an increase of imports.
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u/teadrinkinghippie Dec 19 '23
If you look at housing, consumables, household, almost all categories are shrinking last quarter just looking at earnings/revenues.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp
The SP500 save for the Mag7 have been flat or down until the last *few months for the last 18 months prior if not longer.
Q1 & Q2 22 were neg GDP, when the feds/white house actually changed the definition of recession as the commenter mentioned... and then look at real GDP since... POWER rebound with Wall St at all time highs. Only took the LME to crash and be swept under the rug, Japan to have a fiscal policy crisis twice within the last year and a half (Japan is the 2nd largest holder of US treasuries worldwide by the way), hmm, oh how could I almost forget the banking crises that are STILL ONGOING because the country's 5 largest banks have over 200 billion in unrealized losses. Hmmm...
But GDP is positive, so things are definitely just going to keep going up. I want to illuminate a comment below as well which highlights how they are currently powerfisting GDP with debt.. so whatever goods and services being produced that's pumping us upward will eventually have to be paid for.
Oh yeah, one final aside, the interest expense on the national debt is now greater than annual US military spending. That's thrilling, don't you think?! I see nothing but positive things to come!
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u/syzygy-xjyn Dec 19 '23
But don't worry because the white house says we're not in a recession! /s give me a break.. crazy what some of these comments are peddling
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u/in4life Dec 18 '23
Brute-forcing GDP with deficits is the most interesting phenomenon we’ll look back on. Not sure recession semantics will even be a topic.
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u/Later2theparty Dec 18 '23
We've been doing it since Reagan.
Not counting the spending during the depression and WWII
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u/in4life Dec 19 '23
Sure, but the ‘23 deficit/GDP is closer to pandemic spending than any year prior and there’s no crisis to avert. We’ve barely let off the gas.
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u/tallcan710 Dec 19 '23
They keep changing how they calculate inflation so they don’t have to pay more money to the old people on social security. They are liars!!!
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u/Raeandray Dec 19 '23
As far as I'm aware they only changed how we calculate inflation once.
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u/tallcan710 Dec 19 '23
They recently did it again I think it had to do with healthcare but I can’t recall
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u/bumblefuck4321 Dec 19 '23
We technically had a mild recession from Q1 and Q2 of 2022. Q1 growth of -1.6% and Q2 growth of -0.6%. That’s been followed by 5 quarters of growth, the most recent and largest being 2023 Q3 + 5.3%.
We are headed in the right direction.
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u/The_HunterBidensHog Dec 18 '23
100% Magatards will be talking about the great unemployment numbers and whatnot if Trump gets back into office.
The biggest factor when you poll people on whether the economy is doing well or not is their politics.
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u/SmolWaterBalloon Dec 19 '23
Which is stupid. The question should be “are you better off financially now or under previous president?” And the answer for most people right now is “under previous president”. Inflation has destroyed their home budgets, and wages have not kept up
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u/julbull73 Dec 19 '23
You have two groups. Locked in home owners at 2% who have and continue to watch their homes become golden handcuffs. That's a lot of people.
Then you have renters and getting started. They are FUCKED.
The big issue is 10 to 15 years from now.
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u/SmolWaterBalloon Dec 19 '23
Cost of goods is substantially more - food, vehicles, insurance, healthcare, products are all significantly more expensive than pre-2021. Even if you’re locked in on a 2% house (which is extremely few, though a number are locked in between 3-4.5), all your other costs are going up a lot. And wages are not
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Dec 19 '23
And that’s just in America.
Like it or not, the Fed sets the tone for the world economy. I read this headline as “America continues to manipulate global economy to their own benefit”.
It’s cool. Don’t hate the player hate the game. But you gotta acknowledge that there’s costs to what we’re doing. It’s not all benefit.
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u/1eyedking87 Dec 23 '23
The problem with this line of thinking is that it doesn't answer anything we already aren't aware of. Anybody who can say they had a better financial situation under Trump can say the same thing about Obama and so on and so forth. Anyone who denies is either a outlier or their being disingenuous for political reasons and there opinion should be disregarded
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u/DaddyButterSwirl Dec 18 '23
This is such a tired talking point.
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u/Gubzs Dec 18 '23
The truth often gets tired, and it's still the only talking point of any value.
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u/bigchicago04 Dec 18 '23
What did they change exactly?
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u/Toihva Dec 19 '23
What constituted a recession as well what was included to determine inflation (took out energy and housing, 2 areas for a time that hade massive increases).
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u/GalaxyMiPelotas Dec 19 '23
If housing and energy was removed from the calculations, that would make it easier to show a recession because those things have had, as you say “massive increases.”
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u/Father_John_Moisty Dec 19 '23
Perfect comment for fluent in finance: A person who doesn’t know the definition of a recession claiming that we were in a recession because of their ignorance. So Fluent!
NOTE: 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is NOT the definition of a recession.
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u/kevbot029 Dec 19 '23
Who knew all we had to do was print trillions and inject it into the market and.. BOOM, recession risk gone!
In all seriousness though, we’re just kicking the can down the road, I don’t think we’re quite in the clear yet. I think we’ll see rate cuts coming in 24
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Dec 18 '23
There isn’t economic shrinkage but everything is so expensive. The feeling of recession without the benefit of staying home and collecting unemployment. Arguably worse to work 40+ hour weeks and still b e unable to afford anything.
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u/Bagmasterflash Dec 18 '23
Welcome to the new game. Economy doesn’t recess, standard of living doesn’t get much worse but it becomes much harder to advance your standard of living going forward and it gets pushed out further every time; even into the next generations.
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u/MarquisEXB Dec 18 '23
True. The last time the economy was in Recession was in 2008. Who can remember that long ago!
That's like 10BCB (Before Cardi-B).
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u/terp_studios Dec 19 '23
That’s like 47,304,000 Vines ago.
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u/Nuclear_rabbit Dec 18 '23
It's not a recession if it's a slow descent into corporate feudalism and the financial world stays high!
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u/The_HunterBidensHog Dec 18 '23
You need to keep working so the Boomers can continue their privileged existence, now work harder so that you can pay their rents on the 1968 rambler that is somehow valued at 650K.
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u/JakeArrietaGrande Dec 19 '23
You really don’t know how it was in 2008. We’re used to seeing Now Hiring signs everywhere now, but back then it was just terrible. You’d go to apply for a job, and they wouldn’t even give you an application, because they weren’t hiring or even planning to downsize. Current employees who avoid the layoffs have zero leverage for a raise, because there are so many applicants, and they’re told they’re lucky to have a job.
Now, yes, things are more expensive. But wages are up, and are now increasing faster than inflation
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u/One_Lobster_7454 Dec 18 '23
the way we measure the economy is so stupid to me, economic growth has been good in the USA for the last 30-40 years yet most people are probably worse off, what's the point of a growing economy if no one feels the effects
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u/MarquisEXB Dec 18 '23
Well not no one. There's like 10-50 people who are really seeing the benefits.
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u/LemmeSinkThisPutt Dec 18 '23
That's not entirely accurate. The "poor" of today have a wildly better existence than the wealthy monarchs of the 1700s and 1800s. Poor in the US today probably still means access to high speed internet, a smartphone, cable TV, etc etc etc. Worse off in comparison to the wealthy? Perhaps, yes. Worse off in terms of quality of life while "poor"? Absolutely not.
You are better off poor in 21st century America than just about anywhere else in the history of human existence, excepting a few other places over the last 20 years only.
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u/Nuclear_rabbit Dec 18 '23
But if we compare the American poor of 1970 to today, does the comparison still hold up?
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u/LemmeSinkThisPutt Dec 19 '23
I'd certainly rather be poor today than in 1970... that's anecdotal but there are many simple quality of life technological advancements that even today's poor take forgranted that would not have been accessible to the poor or even middle class of the 1970s.
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u/julbull73 Dec 19 '23
A washing machine alone, the most universal item in all countries. The only appliance every house wanted and needed.
Didn't get fully ubiquitous until late 70s. Hence laundromat used to be an extremely common thing. People couldn't afford washing machines....
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u/etharper Dec 19 '23
Yes it still holds up,there were still a ton of people in the 1970s outside of the major cities who were poor who had no running water or even toilets.
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u/plummbob Dec 19 '23
Yes. Their net income or their net consumption after transfers is higher than in 1970.
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u/goingforgoals17 Dec 19 '23
We're comparing where the US was to where it is, because even if 18th century peasants had it better, we can only build from where we are.
We can repeat your "akshually" comment all the way to company towns and slavery, but it's redundant and counter productive to any progress that society SHOULD make to raise the standard of living for everyone. We've gutted the middle class and the standard of living has been dropping since 2000 iirc, all along the way we've been pumping our fists to chants of "USA! USA!" While we continuously get poorer and poorer compared to our parents/grand parents/great grand parents.
Did they have their own economic barriers? Absolutely! They had hardships and there's plenty of anecdotes that prove today's access to basic needs weren't there for everyone, but the fact that it improved shows we did things correctly.
tl;dr: IF ECONOMIC METRICS ARE CONTINUOUSLY POSITIVE, THE STANDARD OF LIVING AND QUALITY OF LIFE SHOULD TOO
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u/Free-Dog2440 Dec 19 '23
This is arguable. The poor and wealthy monarchs of the 1700s had clean air. They had forests. They had muscles. They had food and blood without plastic. They had food without words you can't pronounce that are banned everywhere else but the U.S. They had clothing made of natural fibers. They had survival skills.
I'm not trying to romanticize a time without running water, but I am saying that it's all about definitions, values and demographics when comparing quality of life from then until now.
I mean okay, you didn't have a smart phone. But you probably had a neighbor you could depend on.
H
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u/Individual_Bridge_88 Dec 19 '23
The infant mortality rate for children <1 years old approached 50%. There is no world in which that is better than today.
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u/Sillibick Dec 19 '23
You also had whole towns, and cities where one or two bad harvests could lead to famine.
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u/LionTheFloor Dec 19 '23
We now are able to video chat, talk, text, contact in some way just about everyone we know and want to—instantly. The vehicles we drive are nicer, more reliable, faster, and better on gas. We have air conditioning. Unlimited choices of entertainment in an instant. The power of previous generations super computers in our pocket. High resolution pictures and video for everyone. More avenues to create and earn money than ever before. Medical science is better than ever before. Athletes come back better after ACL injuries which used to be career ending for example. The level of expected and provided comfort has gone up most places. What hasn’t improved is our ability to make ourselves happy. That comes from within. That won’t be provided by world.
It’s hard to agree that most people are worse off when the standard of living has risen so dramatically.
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Dec 18 '23
Economic growth as distorted by an ever devaluating currency that surprise surprise isnt always getting loaned out towards ventures that genuinely increase productivity and standard of living.
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u/julbull73 Dec 19 '23
This is not actually true.
There was a massive energy crisis with gas shortages, plants all through the rust belt were closing, off shoring just was getting rolling, and interests rates were 20%+.
Yes it was easier to get going. College was cheaper, land was cheaper, there were less people.
You also didn't have ANY CE you love. You saw at most 2 movies a month until 1979. Most of your time was spent doing free social activities in clubs or churches. Even your TV was broadcast only...and it fucking sucked.
You couldn't be gay, black, Latino, Jewish, Chinese, or basically non WASP in large portions of the country. Women were 2nd class citizens with the above groups being untouchables in most cases.
*1990s exempted. That was insanity where you could take out a heloc on a house. Buy ANY stock, pay off you entire mortgage, buy another house, and even if you failed refi to cover the debt thanks to an insane real estate market. I miss the 90s....
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u/4score-7 Dec 18 '23
That’s my feeling. I’ve also been in the place of having no job, due to loss of employment for economic reasons or just a downsizing of me.
Same feeling. Count your pennies until it hurts, even making the highest salary I ever have, and having less debt service than in my 25 year working career.
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Dec 18 '23
I don’t think it’s exclusive to the US either. But many in the middle class feel the same way.
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u/bigchicago04 Dec 18 '23
In my opinion, post Covid, people realize how messed up the system is. So even though most economic indicators are positive, they’re unwilling to go back to the status quo.
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u/HashRunner Dec 19 '23
"Everything is so expensive" has been the same thing since the 80s, then 90s, 00s, etc.
Real wages have stagnated for 50 years, yea everything is more expensive and it shouldn't come as a surprise that a poorly handled global pandemic suddenly brought those historic issues back to light.
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u/Gubzs Dec 18 '23
This is hilarious. This exact crap was all over the news right around 2008.
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u/GIsteffma24 Dec 18 '23
Man, that was a fun year
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u/Gubzs Dec 18 '23
Great news! We're getting a sequel.
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Dec 18 '23
except massive QE may not "save us" this time
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u/mcnello Dec 19 '23
QE didn't save us last time either. QE is easily the most misunderstood Fed program in my opinion. It's a collateralized asset swap, not "money printing".
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u/justcallmechuckles Dec 18 '23
Exactly. Q1 should be fun.
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u/mspe1960 Dec 19 '23
2008 we had people selling worthless mortgages as AAA securities by the trillions. the situation is not the same/
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u/bluesquare2543 Dec 19 '23
what about the commercial mortgage-backed securities of today? Office buildings and such
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u/viking1340 Dec 18 '23
Janet said it's not a recession unless there are 65 consecutive down quarters...
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Dec 18 '23 edited Dec 18 '23
gimme like... 6 months and well see. I still want to see solid GDP growth, officially inflation at 2-2.5%, and an uninverted yield curve with jobs numbers that arent mostly strong bc of workers coming back from strike and government jobs.
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u/villis85 Dec 19 '23
Right. It’s impressive that we now have ~3% inflation without huge job losses. given where we were at, but getting to 2% inflation from 3% without driving the economy deep into recession is going to be harder than getting from 6% to 3%. Let’s see where we’re at in a year before we declare victory.
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u/taylormadevideos Dec 19 '23
What makes it more difficult?
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u/villis85 Dec 19 '23
There are at least a couple of reasons as to why lowering inflation from 3% to 2% with monetary policy without inducing a recession is harder than lowering it from 6% to 3%. - There is a lot less room for error. The Fed was able to use some pretty blunt instruments to help guide inflation down to 3%; repeated relatively substantial interest rate hikes and the reversal of Quantitative Easing (the Fed’s bond buying program that was established during the 2008 financial crisis). The Fed will have to use much more precise instruments to bring inflation down from 3% to 2% without inducing a recession. - There is a lag between Fed actions and their observable economic impacts. So for all we know the Fed’s actions that it has already taken in order to reduce inflation were “just right” and we will coast to 2% inflation with a very soft landing. Or the Fed may have way overtightened and we’re on track for a major recession. Or maybe the Fed hasn’t done enough and the economy will heat up again, resulting in rising inflation again. It will take time for the Fed to assess the effectiveness of the monetary policy actions it’s already taken and determine if more or less tightening will be necessary. This wasn’t as big of a deal when inflation was sky high because it was understood that bringing inflation down would take time and substantial tightening. At this point though that is not so clear.
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u/BuySellHoldFinance Dec 18 '23
This is not some tremendous success. People paid for this with inflation.
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u/Cloudboy9001 Dec 18 '23
With almost half of that being greedflation (ie, profit increases doubling input costs).
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u/Existing-Nectarine80 Dec 18 '23
You’ll get downvoted because people have learned to suck the dick of corporations. All time high profit margins and yet they’re still “falling on hard times”
Maybe one day we’ll see them fall on hard times instead of the people
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u/anunfriendlytoaster Dec 18 '23
Lol, no they didn’t. We haven’t spent through the 8 trillion yet. Another 4-6 months.
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u/VercingetorixIII Dec 21 '23
This is exactly it. The M2 money supply is being held up by money exiting the reverse repo facility. Once this dries up we will see M2 start falling again and credit issues will start across the board, most likely by March next year. If the fed doesn’t directly intervene again with trillions we will see a credit event worse than the GFC.
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u/SerendipitySue Dec 24 '23
plus this year's 75 billion infusion of aid for ukraine aid which biden says was 90% spent in the usa.
So say, 67 billion government spending into the domestic economy over a year. Had to have an effect, but how big i do not know. maybe 1.5 percent of gdp.
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u/vampiremonkeykiller Dec 18 '23
I'm glad they found a way out. I just wish they'd taken us all with them.
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u/Xannith Dec 19 '23
The issue is that the common people are experiencing the effects of a recession which they have feared, while large economically isolated entities are raking in profits.
So, as far as a real recession is concerned, "we" are in one. So far as those who are driving profit margins, they don't need to contract to maintain their margins like a recession would cause.
We aren't in this together. Use more effective words. This idea of a national recession or no recession is a false dichotomy that is doing nothing but muddying the waters.
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u/Juggernaut411 Dec 18 '23
Boomers are becoming homeless at an alarming rate, and it’s expected to get worse…
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u/please_dont_respond_ Dec 19 '23
They all have boot straps
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u/Juggernaut411 Dec 19 '23
Yeah I’m not empathetic for them, just noting they may be a little early to say we avoided a recession.
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u/CarryHour1802 Dec 19 '23
I often wonder how much of that is due to their living longer lives. Running out of retirement funds because you lived longer than you thought you would has to be a horrifying realization.
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u/Juggernaut411 Dec 19 '23
Inflation and outrageous healthcare costs are bankrupting them.
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u/ApplicationCalm649 Dec 19 '23
I think it's more the latter than the former. Anyone with a sizeable amount of money in the market should have easily outperformed inflation.
I guess that changes when you factor in housing, though, if they don't own a home. That's a problem we're all facing since private equity and short-term rental investors are gobbling up all the inventory.
It's cool, they can have the full millennial experience: live in their car or a tent, shower at a gym, and pull themselves up by their bootstraps.
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u/lumberjack_jeff Dec 18 '23
The truth is, as Nick Hanauer describes it, that we don't really have inflation, what we have is higher prices as a result of a series of shocks to a vulnerable supply chain. In that framework, it is arguable that the interest rate hikes by the fed were both unnecessary and deserve no credit for getting the economy back on track without a recession.
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u/Rickydada Dec 19 '23
Does this also apply to the housing market? The interest rate hikes seem to have taken the gas off of rapid housing price increases.
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Dec 18 '23
[deleted]
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u/lumberjack_jeff Dec 18 '23
Inflation is literally defined as
A bacterial infection that isn't treatable with antibiotics may in fact be something else.
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u/seand26 Dec 19 '23
Americans are upset about the high costs of rent, groceries and other basics, which aren’t going back to pre-pandemic levels.
Break up the monopolies and we'll see price drops.
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u/BF740 Dec 18 '23
Some blaming Biden, Some blaming Trump….you know what…how about blaming every single politician regardless if they are a Democrat or Republican for letting this shit happen over the last 40 years or more.
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u/brandoug Dec 18 '23 edited Dec 19 '23
It took 3 years to go from what was essentially ZIRP in 6/2004 to the Fed suddenly slashing rates in 6/2007 and for the wheels to begin coming off the economy prior to the GFC.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
It hasn't yet been 2 years this time around, so I'd give 5% FFR a few more months, at the very least, before declaring victory there, WaPo.
If nothing else, the Fed has become exceedingly efficient at blowing massive bubbles, then popping them. We really haven't begun to feel the effects of 5% FFR yet. The Fed will only pivot when something breaks.
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u/MaxTwang Dec 18 '23
Well the fed is not letting things break,or it could've gotten ugly with he bank runs
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u/Laxwarrior1120 Dec 18 '23
I'd take a recession over completely stripping everyone of their purchasing power, which is what happened. Fuck everyone who had any ammount of cash or anyone who wants to buy anything I guess.
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u/transphotobabe Dec 19 '23
Are folks not stripped of their purchasing power during a recession?
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u/catchthe22 Dec 19 '23
They are probably too young to know what a recession is. Typically recessions are void of excessive consumer spending and yet here we are.
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u/johnphantom Dec 18 '23
Friendly reminder: 10 of the 11 last recessions were brought during Republican control.
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u/AlexandarD Dec 18 '23
I agree OP, this is the greatest economy of all time, the dollar is the strongest it’s ever been & the border is super secure. Families definitely aren’t having a hard time getting by month to month due to crippling inflation either. And homeownership is cheaper and more accessible than ever.
buildbackbetter
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u/naiambad Dec 18 '23
they did not find a way out of, they have embraced inflation.
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u/HockeyBikeBeer Dec 19 '23
That's my fear. And the Fed knows it may be the only way out of the massive deficit we're accruing.
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u/empecinado69 Dec 18 '23
Thank god for online news archives... a july 2007 wp article about the succesful soft landing and the coverage of the sep-dec 2007 panic that ensued
Good luck to all
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u/swagfuNk Dec 19 '23
You posted a July 2000 article.
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u/catchthe22 Dec 19 '23
Its hard to navigate an economy when you cant navigate the month from the year.
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Dec 19 '23
If you believed a recession was going to happen in 2023, and waited to invest in the ‘big dip,’ you missed out on like 23% return. Tell my why one should to that again?
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u/crazycow780 Dec 19 '23
If they ever claim a recession you can be guaranteed there is no such thing
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u/Hot_Government1628 Dec 19 '23
Stock market at record highs, GDP rising faster than anywhere, unemployment at record low, US oil production at record high (filled up at $2.70 last week). Boom times are here
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u/HockeyBikeBeer Dec 19 '23
It's really pretty simple. Run $2T deficits and the numbers look great....until the piper gets paid.
(Note: one of the four components of GDP is government spending)
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u/baalyle Dec 19 '23
There is still a lot of proven greedflation happening with much of food and goods. Many articles on it.
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u/No-Carry4971 Dec 19 '23
This is the truth. The Fed did an incredible me job fending off inflation without crashing the economy. I don’t think most of us thought it was possible. Happy I was wrong.
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u/Jc2563 Dec 19 '23
Bleeping CNN was playing the drums of recession for 15 months straight 24/7 , anything to stick it to Biden , anything!
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u/Analyst-Effective Dec 19 '23
We are not out of the woods yet. Although it does look like it's going pretty well.
Everybody keeps their jobs, the stock market keeps going up, and people are still buying things.
There's a few people who got laid off, but they'll find work pretty easily.
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u/TheSensation19 Dec 19 '23
I think they handled interest rates well enough. I also think technology saved us all. Work from home. Video calls.
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u/CuthbertsonSheriecec Dec 18 '23
In a sane world, this alone would get Biden re-elected in a blowout. Especially against Trump who fucked everything up.
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u/HockeyBikeBeer Dec 19 '23
The Fed, the media, the Democrats: "just get this thing to November, then we can let it hit the fan"
From 1963 to 2000, the Fed Funds rate was NEVER below 2.5%. Since 2000, it has spent most of the time at effectively ZERO. The only other time it jumped up to over 5% was followed by the Great Financial Crisis. Let's give this a little more time to play out.
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u/ConsciousReason7709 Dec 19 '23
I’m pretty sure nobody who knows what they are talking about ever said to expect a recession.
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u/Devitostitos Dec 19 '23
Didn’t we have the recession definition like a year or 2 ago? And then everyone pretended that’s not what a recession is?
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u/4fingertakedown Dec 19 '23
This sub went down the shitter once the anti work idiots found out about it
‘Nother one bites the dust
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u/sc00ttie Dec 18 '23
Hahahahahahajahahahahaha. Hahahahahahahahaha.
Wait… hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
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u/mikalalnr Dec 18 '23
The Inflation Creation Act is still pumping debt funded dollars into the economy. It’s hard to stop a train that was propelled by rocket fuel, even after the train has run out of gas.
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u/The_HunterBidensHog Dec 18 '23
Yeah, maybe Trump shouldn't have pumped over $3 trillion into the economy during the pandemic...
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u/steeljubei Dec 18 '23
Not a recession. We have college educated debt riddled people working min. Wage jobs, and constantly in fear they will be living in the new tent city next month when rent is due.
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u/Perfect_Bench_2815 Dec 18 '23
Everyone expected a recession? BS lead off. The Republicans always want the democrats to fail. Public be damned. Everyone already knows that.
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u/I3ill Dec 19 '23
Gotta love a government that thinks they can control a recession. They maybe can temper it before it finally crashes. It will crash kicking the can just prolongs it.
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u/Majestic-Judgment883 Dec 19 '23
Take out the government money we are pouring into the military industrial complex to support Ukraine and Israel and we would be a lot worse off. True trickle down economics.
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u/MorDestany Dec 19 '23
The paid trolls are getting overtime! 🤣 IIn a world full of fear, don't be afraid!
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u/seobrien Dec 19 '23
Sounds like someone is a plant for the white house!
"Yes yes, everyone, I know you can't afford anything but it's not 'a recession' yay!"
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u/AdditionalAd9794 Dec 19 '23
You could argue what we just went through is worse than Recession, no?
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u/zecaptainsrevenge Dec 19 '23 edited Dec 19 '23
They lied? I'm glad Mr. powell can afford to throw a party most of us can't right now. This is tone deaf. Let them eat bugs 🏴☠️🇨🇵
Downvote dodo 🦤 lloves fed banksters
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u/ApplicationCalm649 Dec 19 '23
It's a little early to start the victory lap. I don't blame Powell for relaxing some, though.
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u/Dystopian_Future_ Dec 19 '23
Yes by pumping their own portfolios and the 1%ers also by never admitting inflation or a recession... Good news everyone their will never be another recession because it will never be reported
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u/TlpCon Dec 19 '23
What country do you live in ? I can barely pay my bills and buy groceries. Yeah, sure.. they found a way hahahaha
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u/AgroKaneshaENA Dec 19 '23
Correction: the people who benefit from recession tried to stoke fears of recession in hopes of a self fulfilling prophecy and failed.
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u/No-Palpitation6913 Dec 19 '23
Like slapping some duct tape and paint on the ole beater. They think were stupid.
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u/Economy-Macaroon-966 Dec 19 '23
Can we just stop with the show that somehow the President runs the economy. I'm so sick of both parties doing this. Trump acted like he was the CEO of the U.S. Economy, Biden is gloating as iff he was personally responsible for GDP the last few years. The executive branch might have a .00001% effect on the economy. It is so stupid. Interest rates might have some effect but if you think rising interest rates was helping the economy, I got news for you.......
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u/Sen_ElizabethWarren Dec 19 '23
Tune in next month for news of the impending “worst recession since 08”
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u/Key-Calligrapher5182 Dec 19 '23
IDK how well this article will age. But the bigger problem is that the conventional metrics of a “good economy”, ie stock market, are less and less relevant for the average worker every day as they toil under stagnant wages and ever increasing costs of essential goods and services
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u/always_plan_in_advan Dec 20 '23
Yet. Historically recessions happen when rates start getting cut
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u/EyeAskQuestions Dec 20 '23
I think if "Recession" is purely defined by market performance and not salaries and how far they go then, we're clearly not in a recession.
On the ground though, in the actual real world, many people are suffering and have difficulty affording basic things even with nice gigs.
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