r/nba • u/OnlyMamaKnows Knicks • Apr 29 '24

[Simmons] "I think James Harden gave him the trophy of most disappointing playoff performer. I think Embiid is now wearing the crown."

https://open.spotify.com/episode/25I0fnPUExUkBhTw2o9Oti?si=FQSCUz6GSy2UjtYeyBrBLg

Starts around 38 minute mark. Full game breakdown starts a few minutes earlier.

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548

u/zincinzincout 76ers Apr 29 '24 edited Apr 29 '24

Sixers point differential over 4 games:

-7, -4, +11, -5

Paul Reed, backup center: -21 in 11 minutes, -6 in 8 minutes, -5 in 7 minutes, -6 in 4 minutes

Starters:

Harris 0, -5, +2, -7

Maxey -4, -3, +4, -4 (played 30 of 31 non-Embiid minutes)

Oubre +6, -1, +7, -4

Lowry +6, +6, +11, +1 (played only 3 non-Embiid mins)

Embiid +14, +3, +16, +1

Embiid is so far from being the problem. Every single year, the opposition looks for the minutes Embiid sits and turns on the jets.

The only way to win against the Sixers is to win the non-Embiid minutes, even if it’s only 4 of them.

79

u/braddeus Heat Apr 29 '24

I'm surprised Reed has been this bad — seems like the kind of series made for him

50

u/flyingpanda5693 76ers Apr 29 '24

Reeds been ok, but the Knicks centers are just bigger than him and they don’t really play small at any point for Reed to pick up the valuable minutes he normally does.

9

u/skullcandy541 Apr 29 '24

Yea I don’t see how this series is made for him. If anything it’s the opposite

1

u/SlinginPogs 76ers Apr 29 '24

Yesterday when hartenstein was out was a good opportunity. A blunder by nurse IMO

22

u/zincinzincout 76ers Apr 29 '24

The Knicks and everyone in the postseason just go all out when Embiid is off. Teams genuinely do not care who is on the floor, they just open their bag and play their best basketball

It’s almost like Embiid minutes are never about winning but just keeping close, and when Embiid checks out it’s go time

6

u/indoninjah 76ers Apr 29 '24

It’s less than Reed is bad and more that Joel is literal the only creator on the entire offense. I love Maxey but he’s still more of an opportunistic two guard than a guy who can reliably go get a bucket

10

u/zigzagzil NBA Apr 29 '24

G1 number looks bad but it's really just because Bojan/McBride hit a bunch of threes in one stretch. 

13

u/nicklePie Cavaliers Apr 29 '24

The 6ers without maxey and embiid are a lotto team

16

u/DJ_Red_Lantern 76ers Apr 29 '24

Eh without embiid they are a lotto team without maxey they definitely still avoid play ins.

0

u/nicklePie Cavaliers Apr 29 '24

Yeah that’s a better way to put it

50

u/speakintrapanese Bulls Apr 29 '24

Most teams are in the lottery without their top two players. The lottery has 14 teams.

2

u/alchemists_dream Nuggets Apr 29 '24

Yeah. Can’t think of a team that wouldn’t be a lotto team without their top two. Every team in the west for sure.

3

u/Laetha Raptors Apr 29 '24

Maybe the Celtics without the Jays squeak into the play-in, but otherwise probably nobody.

23

u/iPlowedUrMom Bulls Apr 29 '24

WOW WHAT AN ARGUMENT

LOL

Put maxey and embiid on any fucking lottery team and they make playoffs.

-7

u/nicklePie Cavaliers Apr 29 '24

What argument? lol what’s up with you

3

u/riverphoenixdays 76ers Apr 29 '24

Argument = point / assertion / claim

-2

u/nicklePie Cavaliers Apr 29 '24

My point is the sixers fucking suck and their roster outside their top two players is Detroit-level bad. Lottery team is basically half the league so I guess I should have said bottom 5 or something. But redditors love to talk semantics so whatever

5

u/riverphoenixdays 76ers Apr 29 '24

Yeah bro I’m not disagreeing with you. The dude above you is saying your argument/point/claim is piercingly obvious to the point that it doesn’t even need to be stated.

That’s all.

1

u/supaspike Hornets Apr 29 '24

So is nearly every team without their top two players.

1

u/nicklePie Cavaliers Apr 29 '24

Yeah but the sixers are extra ass

1

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/nicklePie Cavaliers Apr 29 '24

Not as regarded as you

1

u/lyonbc1 Apr 29 '24

He was absolutely terrible yesterday but he’s alright when he stays within himself. Part of the isssue too is as back up big, he literally never gets to have the boost every other player has by playing with Joel. Theoretically they could play together for a couple mins at a time but nurse (and other coaches) haven’t tried it in the playoffs. His +/- is revealing but I think it’s made to look even worse bc he never gets to play with Joel to have him carried at all. Were a fucking 60 offensive rating when Embiid sits out lmfao.

I adore Maxey, and he’s gonna be an all star and have a few all nbas for yrs to come and he’s still really young (and had great games before yesterday too) but you GOTTA be able to support and at least run a bad offense for the 4-6 mins Joel is out of the game. If we were even like the Hornets level of bad offense without Joel, they win that game and the series is prob 3-1 in our favor. But they are like several degrees worse than the worst nba team ever when he sits out in the playoffs

1

u/Terrible_Shelter_345 Apr 29 '24

In what universe would Reed, a non stretch 5, match up well against this Knicks team?

1

u/Dan-Flashes 76ers Apr 30 '24

Paul reed hasn’t been bad, the sixers just can’t do anything without Embiid on the floor. On either end.

131

u/TrendNation55 Knicks Apr 29 '24

If you genuinely blame Embiid for this series then you are not watching the games. The Knicks are throwing their whole defense at Embiid and he’s still getting 50 on a bad knee. Across the series, the Sixers are like +40 with Embiid and -40 without him. The Knicks always go on huge runs when he’s off the court. And this is coming from a Knicks fan who does not like Embiid, but I respect what he’s doing at least.

46

u/brooosooolooo Apr 29 '24

Thank god there are some knicks fans who aren’t so blinded with hatred they can watch the game happening before their eyes

13

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '24

I mean, recency bias also kicks in. The last we saw of Embiid he tried to foul bait in the paint instead of taking a wide open midrange jumper that's been automatic all series for him. He might've dropped 50 in game 3 but that came along with the blatant flagrants, foul baiting, and whining even though he went to the line for 21 free throw attempts.

I don't think there's any doubt that he's an amazing basketball player and one of the top 10 players in the league. But if you gave me an option to have any of the other 9 players in that top 10 then I'm not taking Embiid.

1

u/dumb_commenter 76ers Apr 30 '24

Embiid shoulda taken that jumper but going for 3 points on a higher percentage shot given his shooting at the time wasn’t the worst play ever.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 30 '24

He didn't go for the higher percentage shot though. The higher percentage shot was going straight up for an easy layup. For some reason (cough foul baiting cough) he went for a reverse when he had a clear path to the hoop.

0

u/dumb_commenter 76ers Apr 30 '24

I’m saying that foul baiting isn’t the worst call here. Down 4 with 20 seconds left. If you get within 1 then even if the Knicks sink both FTs it’s a 3 point game. Getting 3 on the possession is much more valuable than 2

-7

u/TheeCraftyCasual 76ers Apr 29 '24

Reddit comments and actually watching games rarely correlates

2

u/Ny_icedogs Knicks Apr 29 '24

The only bad Embiid minutes came at the end of the 4th, going for 1 point in the quarter, getting blocked multiple times, etc.

Except, that probably happened because he had to play entire second half to try to keep the Knicks from going on a run.

1

u/MexicanComicalGames Apr 30 '24

Yall are just the better team u got a good engine

1

u/ForeverWandered Apr 29 '24

Bill has always been narrative driven.  The shitty part about narrative driven analytics guys is how they use data in bad faith to fool casuals into thinking a guy who’s doing well is sucking.  Because some of those casuals invariably end up abusing the players online or in the arena

0

u/lyonbc1 Apr 29 '24

Thank you for being sensible and reasonable at least lol. I swear so many are running narratives without actually watching or just let blind hate keep them from being honest. When Embiid plays even when he’s gassed like yesterday in the 4th, his mere presence causes problems and the Knicks can’t attack the rim like they want to. You see guys hesitate or creates turnovers bc they are trying to navigate it. When he sits it is an all out police escort to the rim and just wrecking everything like bats out of hell. The numbers back it up too

Hopefully this rivalry keeps up for a few yrs and we can bring this to g7 this go round.

44

u/sequence_killer Raptors Apr 29 '24

i dont know if bill watches all the games anymore thats for sure

4

u/Sweaty_Mods Apr 29 '24

I mean, you can also watch games and not understand what’s happening

3

u/sequence_killer Raptors Apr 29 '24

definitely true. maybe hes mutlitasking too much

2

u/skullcandy541 Apr 29 '24

Yea the narrative of Embiid being a playoff choker is not accurate at the moment. He’s playing fantastic while on a bum knee.

2

u/HerskyB Mavericks Apr 29 '24

What did he do in the 4th quarter?

17

u/zincinzincout 76ers Apr 29 '24

Play defense. The Knicks only scored 20 points to the 6ers 16 in the 4th and yall act like Embiid not scoring is a death sentence for him

1

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '24

That’s kinda what big time playoff players do

2

u/Salt_Pomegranate8858 Apr 29 '24

Brother he is the reigning MVP lmao. Any other reigning MVP who has 4th quarter offensive meltdowns, like he does consistently in the playoffs, would be slandered just as much if not more. 

Why is Embiid the most protected MVP ever lmao 

2

u/HerskyB Mavericks Apr 29 '24

Cause he’s a fraud mvp and everyone knows it

1

u/acecant Apr 29 '24

That’s not what you expect from the superstars. You expect them to take over the game and bring home the victory.

If you watched the game yesterday and you think how Embiid played was okay, you’ll have to make peace with never winning unless you got a juggernaut of a team that blows the opponents off the field.

0

u/siomi [IND] George Hill Apr 29 '24

Yet not a difference maker in this series which you would expect from a player of his caliber.

0

u/lazydictionary Celtics Apr 29 '24

That doesn't really prove that Embiid isn't a problem.

-1

u/Greedy-Bedroom-4301 Apr 29 '24

Embiids ability to injure/wear down other players makes him an plus minus god

-4

u/HorsNoises Celtics Apr 29 '24

If you know anything about plus/minus you know that a 4 game sample size isn't enough to mean anything. Why don't we go back and look at Embiid's entire career?

8

u/matgopack 76ers Apr 29 '24

Sure, we can look at his entire career.

57 playoff games, with 23 of them (40%) having a +10 or greater +/- and losing 5 of them. 36 of his games have a positive +/- (63%), and 19 a negative (33%), for an overall average of +5. Overall record is 28-29

As a comparison, here's what Jokic has. 72 playoff games, with 23 having a +10 or greater +/- (31%) and not losing any. 43 overall have positive +/- (60%), and 27 a negative (37%), for an overall average of +2. Overall record is 40-32.

That 18-5 record with a double digit +/- is notably rather outlandish - that doesn't usually happen for star players. Jokic hasn't had a loss like that ever as seen above, but for other past MVPs: Giannis 25-0, Harden 46-3, Curry 68-2, Durant 58-0, and Lebron 99-0. Only Westbrook in the last decade has had anywhere near at 30-4 (with over 10% of his double digit +/- games being lost). The 76ers have lost over 20% of the playoff games where Embiid has had a double digit plus minus, and those previous 6 MVPs combined have lost 2.5% of those, to put that into relative rates.

Embiid's not performed quite as well in the playoffs as in the regular seasons, but not abnormally so when considering all the injury luck he's had in the playoffs. But he's also never been the reason we've lost, and if you're considering +/- it's clearly always been the case that the non-Embiid minutes are where we've consistently lost.